1990-2021年全球及中国下呼吸道感染的疾病负担及预测分析

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Abstract Objective To analyze the disease burden, attributable risk factors of LRIs from 1990 to 2021 and the trends of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in China and the world from 1990 to 2021. Methods The Global Burden of Disease database 2021 was used to analyze the number of cases, age-standardized incidence rates, number of death, age-standardized mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rates caused by LRIs. The BAPC model in R 4.3.3 software was used to predict age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates for LRIs in the world and China from 2022 to 2035. Results In 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate of LRIs was 4283.61 per 100,000, with a mortality rate of 28.67 per 100,000 and a DALYs rate of 1168.80 per 100,000. In China, the age-standardized incidence rate was 2853.81 per 100,000, the mortality rate was 14.03 per 100,000, and the DALYs rate was 347.67 per 100,000. Among all the age groups in the world, the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates of LRIs were highest in the 95+ age group, and the disease burden in children under five remained significant. Similar trends were found in China, with the oldest age group having the highest rates. The annual estimated percentage change from 1990 to 2021 showed a declining trend in the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates of LRIs in the world and China from 1990 to 2021. Analysis of risk factors in 2021 indicated that household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and child malnutrition were major contributors to mortality and increased DALYs for LRIs patients. Conclusions Although the disease burden of LRIs has shown a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2021 and is projected to continue decreasing until 2035, the disease burden remains high in the elderly population of 60+. It is necessary to strengthen e the publicity of disease-related knowledge in the elderly and reduce the exposure to related risk factors, thus mitigating the disease burden of LRIs.

Key words： lower respiratory tract infections disease burden risk factors prediction

Received: 05 March 2024

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	HUANG Ying
	XIANG Dan
	HUANG Jie
	LIANG Zhaojun

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HUANG Ying,XIANG Dan,HUANG Jie等. Disease burden and predictive analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in the world and China from 1990 to 2021[J]. Med. J. Chin. Peop. Armed Poli. Forc., 2025, 36(1): 42-49.

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https://journal08.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_wjyx/EN/ OR https://journal08.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_wjyx/EN/Y2025/V36/I1/42

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