老年多器官功能不全综合征预后评估五种评分系统比较

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Abstract Objective To compare the prognostic value of five scoring systems in patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in the elderly(MODSE). Methods In this study, we collected the clinical data of 465 patients with MODSE. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅲ (APACHE Ⅲ) score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score Ⅱ (SAPS Ⅱ), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome in the Elderly Score(MODSES) were all calculated. The prognostic values of five scoring systems were evaluated by receiver operator characteristic(ROC) curve. Results In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve was 0.768( 95%CI, 0.725-0.811) for APACHE Ⅱ, 0.796(95%CI, 0.755-0.837) for APACHE Ⅲ, 0.789(95%CI, 0.748-0.830) for SAPS Ⅱ, 0.746(95%CI, 0.701-0.791) for SOFA and 0.783(95%CI, 0.740-0.825) for MODSES, APACHE Ⅲ had the highest sensitivity of 0.780, and APACHE Ⅱ had the highest specificity of 0.835. Conclusions The five scoring systems showed satisfactory forecasting ability in prognostic prediction of patients with MODSE. The scoring systems with high prognostic values are APACHE Ⅲ, SAPS Ⅱ and MODSES.

Received: 03 August 2014

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	Articles by authors
	ZHAO Zhirui
	WANG Huijuan
	ZHANG Xin
	GUO Chao
	and XIE Lixin

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ZHAO Zhirui,WANG Huijuan,ZHANG Xin等. Application of five scoring systems to prognostic evaluation in multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in the elderly[J]. Med. J. Chin. Peop. Armed Poli. Forc., 2014, 25(12): 1195-1198.

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http://journal08.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_wjyx/EN/ OR http://journal08.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_wjyx/EN/Y2014/V25/I12/1195

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