Abstract: The evolution of science and technology is one of the most important and complex issues in academia. With the accelerating integration of scientific, technological, economic, and social development, industrial technological innovation has become a focal point of theoretical research. However, existing studies have primarily focused on the influencing factors of industrial innovation performance from the perspectives of policy support, technological development, and market economy, often neglecting the crucial role of scientific research at the forefront of industry. This study, from a science-driven perspective, takes the 5G communications industry—a typical science-driven industry—as an example. It creatively combines the fsQCA method with simulation modeling analysis to better depict the evolutionary process from scientific research to technological innovation. This research has yielded several valuable conclusions. Firstly, the complex and dynamic evolutionary process between science and technology is a process where quantitative changes in science lead to qualitative changes in technological innovation. This process is influenced by multiple factors such as scientific research investment and output, the intensity of scientific linkage, scientific collaboration networks, and firm scientific capabilities. The interaction between these influencing factors can accelerate the evolutionary process and shorten the evolutionary cycle. Science-based innovation is the core condition for transforming scientific research into technological achievements and is the decisive factor for industrial technological breakthroughs. The diffusion and application of science-based innovation results spur a large number of technological innovations, thereby pushing the industry into a rapid development cycle. Moreover, the heterogeneous effects of multi-actor participation in scientific research on the evolutionary process of technological innovation performance are evident. In the early stages of industrial development, scientific exploration mainly relies on universities and research institutions. However, firm participation in scientific research can effectively promote the transformation of science into technology and subsequent commercialization. On the basis of scientific breakthroughs, firm participation—particularly the scale of participation—plays a more critical role in promoting technological innovation performance. Additionally, this study proposes three configuration paths for enhancing technological innovation performance: all-element science innovation-driven type, dual-element scientific ecosystem-driven type, and single-element scientific linkage absorption type. Different development paths can be selected based on the varying conditions of science-driven factors in a country or industry. Based on the research conclusions, this paper offers several policy recommendations for developing science-driven industries in China. These include constructing a science-driven national innovation system, creating new types of industry-university-research collaborative innovation organizations, emphasizing the cultivation of science-based innovation, and optimizing the layout of scientific research investment to leverage its guiding value. These recommendations have strong practical implications. In summary, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolutionary process from scientific research to technological innovation in the 5G communications industry, highlighting the multifaceted influences and interactions that drive this evolution. The findings underscore the importance of scientific research as a foundational element in industrial technological innovation and offer actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders aiming to foster science-driven industrial development.

摘要： 在科学驱动的产业中，科学到技术的演化是一个高度复杂耦合的过程，两者的关系也成为理论研究与实践探索的热点。本研究基于科学驱动视角，利用fsQCA和Netlogo仿真建模方法，探索国家层面产业技术创新绩效的影响因素与演化路径，研究发现：科学与技术之间复杂动态的演化进程，是由科学的量变引发技术创新的质变过程，受到科学研究投入与产出、科学关联强度、科学合作网络、企业科学能力等多因素的影响，且影响因素之间的互动能够加快演化进程，缩短演化周期；基于科学的创新是科学研究向技术成果转化的核心条件，是产业技术迸发的决定性因素，依靠基于科学的创新成果的扩散与应用，催生大量的技术创新，进而推动产业进入快速发展周期；科学研究的多主体参与对于技术创新绩效演化进程存在异质性效用，产业发展初期的科学探索主要依赖高校与科研机构，而企业参与科学研究能够有效促进科学向技术转化从而实现商业化，在科学产生突破的基础上，企业的参与（尤其是参与规模）对技术创新绩效促进的作用更加重要；同时，本研究提出3条提升技术创新绩效的组态路径，即全要素科学创新驱动型、双要素科学生态驱动型、单要素科学关联吸收型，可根据国家或产业中科学驱动条件的差异，选择适宜的发展路径。