Abstract: Based on global import and export trade data from the years 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, this paper adopts an industry chain perspective to construct a comprehensive global semiconductor trade network encompassing three key segments: raw materials, production equipment, and components to finished products. Through an analysis of overall structure, nodal influence, and community structure, the paper delineates the structural evolution of the semiconductor trade network. Furthermore, it employs impact simulations to delve into the stability of the semiconductor trade network when subjected to different forms of shocks.The findings of this paper are as follows: (1) The global semiconductor trade network exhibits pronounced "small-world" characteristics and boasts robust connectivity. (2) The influence of traditional semiconductor powerhouses remains steadfast, but the emergence of new forces cannot be underestimated. (3) Despite the presence of a "counter-globalization" phenomenon, "globalization" continues to be the predominant trend in the global semiconductor trade network. (4) The global semiconductor trade network displays a dual nature of stability and fragility, with the trade network in the component-to-finished product segment demonstrating the highest stability. The stability of trade networks in different segments generally follows an increasing trend. This paper provides robust support for a systematic understanding of the structural evolution and stability of the global semiconductor trade network. Based on the analytical results, it is imperative for China to explore a more pragmatic path for semiconductor industry development. While striving to enhance the domestication rate, active participation in the global industrial chain and value chain division should continue to be the focal point of industrial policies.

摘要： 该文基于2010年、2014年、2018 年、2022年的全球进出口贸易数据，从产业链视角构建了一个涵盖原材料、生产设备，以及元器件成品三个环节的全球半导体贸易网络。从整体结构、节点影响力、社群结构等角度呈现了半导体贸易网络的结构演进过程，并进一步通过冲击模拟探究了半导体贸易网络在面对不同形式冲击时的稳定性。研究发现：（1）全球半导体贸易网络的“小世界”特征显著，且连通性良好；（2）半导体传统强国的影响力仍然稳固，但新兴势力已不容小觑；（3）在全球半导体贸易网络中，尽管存在“逆全球化”现象，但“全球化”仍然是主要趋势；（4）全球半导体贸易网络具有既稳定又脆弱的特征，其中，元器件成品环节贸易网络的稳定性最强，不同环节贸易网络的稳定性大致呈现增强态势。该文为系统理解全球半导体贸易网络的结构演进及其稳定性提供了有力支持。基于该文分析结果，中国有必要探索一条更为务实的半导体产业发展道路，在努力实现独立自主的同时，积极参与全球产业链价值链分工仍应是产业政策的主轴。