• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 611-624.

• 技术创新与制度创新 • 上一篇    下一篇

创新扩散与全球产业结构优化——基于Agent模拟的研究

钟章奇1,王铮2   

  1. 1. 浙江财经大学经济学院
    2. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-13 修回日期:2016-12-20 出版日期:2017-04-15 发布日期:2017-04-15
  • 通讯作者: 王铮
  • 基金资助:

    气候变化经济过程的复杂性机制、新型集成评估模型簇与政策模拟平台研发

Agent-based simulation of technical innovation diffusion and global industry structure optimization

  • Received:2016-10-13 Revised:2016-12-20 Online:2017-04-15 Published:2017-04-15
  • Contact: Zheng Wang

摘要: 创新扩散对推动区域产业结构转型调整具有重要影响。基于自主体模拟(Agent-based Simulation, ABS)方法,本文将微观尺度上企业创新扩散行为和宏观尺度上产业结构优化联系起来,构建一个从异质性企业出发,到区域产业结构演化的解释模型,来探索创新扩散与全球产业结构优化的相关问题。主要研究发现:对于中国而言,过程创新更有利于其产业结构合理化发展,而对于其他地区而言,产品创新则更有利于其产业结构向其合理化方向演化。与美国、中国和俄罗斯等地相比,提高产品创新规模则有利于推动日本、印度和欧盟等地的产业结构朝着合理化方向演化发展。此外,对中国、日本、印度和欧盟等地来说,扩大过程创新规模有利于推动这些地区的产业结构由相对低效的第一产业向相对高效的第二和第三产业演化发展,从而能推动其产业结构转型升级,但对于美国和俄罗斯而言,较低的过程创新规模更能促进其区域产业结构优化发展。最后,研究还发现不同创新模式在区域中所具有的作用及其产生的区域产业发展效应存在较大差异,因而在区域经济治理中需要采取差别化的创新驱动发展战略。同时区域产业发展维度与创新的空间维度可能存在一定的匹配性。这就为全球经济治理政策制定提供了重要基础理论依据。

Abstract: Innovation diffusion has an important and far-reaching impact on the adjustment and transformation of regional industry structure. Based on the method of agent-based simulation, through combining and integrating firm behavior in terms of technology innovation and diffusion at the micro-scale and global industrial structure optimization at the macro-scale, this paper conducts a new analytical framework used to further explore the impact of large sets of heterogeneous firms’ behavior on the evolution of regional industrial structure, and then examine the relationship between innovation diffusion and global industrial structure optimization. Results mainly show that as for China, process innovation is more beneficial to the rational development of industrial structure, and for USA, Japan and Russia, product innovation will be more effective. Moreover, compared to USA, China and Russia, increasing the product innovation scale is helpful for promoting industrial structure towards rationalization in these regions like India, Japan and EU. Furthermore, for these regions like China, Japan, India and EU, with the scale rising, process innovation is conductive to drive the evolution development of these regions’ industrial structure from the relatively inefficient primary industries to the relatively high-efficient secondary or tertiary industries, which would lead to the optimization and upgrading of their industry structure. However, as for USA and Russia, the moderate scale of process innovation would be more useful for them to promote industrial structure optimization. Additionally, research also suggests that the effect of the pattern of different innovation in a region is difference, and more importantly, there are also large differences among regional industry development impacted by the pattern of different innovation. Therefore, differential strategic choice of regional development driven by innovation should be paid more attention in regional economic governance. Also, there may be some matching between dimension of regional industry development and dimension of space of innovation, which could provide important theoretical basis for formulating some policies in terms of global economic governance.