• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 2262-2274.

• 科学学理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

新兴技术弱信号识别:理论模型与测度方法

韩盟1,陈悦2,王玉奇3,谢俊杰4,4,崔林蔚5   

  1. 1. 大连理工大学科学学与科技管理研究所暨WISE实验室
    2. 大连理工大学
    3. 大连理工大学科学学与科技管理研究所
    4.
    5. 辽宁大学信息资源管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2023-07-21 修回日期:2024-06-12 出版日期:2024-12-15 发布日期:2024-12-15
  • 通讯作者: 陈悦

Identification of Weak Signals of Emerging Technologies: Theoretical Model and Measurement Method

  • Received:2023-07-21 Revised:2024-06-12 Online:2024-12-15 Published:2024-12-15
  • Contact: CHEN Yue

摘要: 习近平总书记曾指出“要以小见大、见微知著,尽早解读、科学预见形势发展走势和隐藏在信号背后的风险挑战。”这正对当前愈加重要的科技自立自强和技术预见工作提出了更高要求,新兴技术弱信号的识别研究价值凸显。研究中,以范式转移理论、知识层次理论和意义建构理论为基础,梳理了新兴技术弱信号识别的理论基础,构建出新兴技术弱信号识别的理论模型;从新颖性、关注度和成长性三个维度设计出六项二级指标及其测度方法,创建了基于三元计量特征的新兴技术弱信号识别方法。最后,以量子信息技术领域为实证对象,2011-2016年数据进行方法检验,2017-2022年数据进行识别预测,评估判断出量子中继、量子网络、量子纠缠浓缩、量子密钥分发和量子点医学共五项当前量子领域新兴技术弱信号,证实了本研究方法的有效性,可以辅助研发人员和管理决策者做未来技术的研发判断。

Abstract: President Xi Jinping stressed "We should observe the small to understand the big, perceive the subtle to grasp the significant, and ly interpret the trends and risks hidden behind the signals, with a scientific approach to foreseeing the development of the situation." This places higher demands on the increasingly important tasks of achieving technological self-reliance and technological foresight. The research value of identifying weak signals in emerging technologies becomes more prominent. In the research, we have based our work on the theories of paradigm shift, knowledge hierarchy, and meaning construction. We have delineated the theoretical foundations and developed a theoretical model for the identification of identification of weak signals of emerging technologies. Subsequently, we designed six secondary indicators and their measurement methods from three dimensions: novelty, attention, and growth, and created an emerging technology weak signal recognition method based on ternary econometric features. Finally, we have taken the field of quantum information technology as the empirical object. We conducted methodological tests using data from 2011 to 2016 and performed identification and prediction using data from 2017 to 2022. Through evaluation and analysis, we identified five emerging weak signals in the current quantum domain: Quantum Repeater, Quantum Networks, Quantum Entanglement Concentration, Quantum Key Distribution, and Quantum Dot Medicine. This confirms the effectiveness of our research methodology, which can assist researchers and decision-makers in making informed judgments regarding future technology development.