Abstract: Studying the systemic impact of domestic foreign capital knowledge spillover, reverse knowledge spillover, and domestic capital knowledge spillover on emerging economies will help to better understand the role of the knowledge spillover system in domestic innovation upgrade, and also will help to find breakthroughs in innovation. In view of this, our paper mainly designs three research contents: First, sort out the literature on triple knowledge spillovers and the innovation and upgrading of emerging economies, especially the discussion in the Chinese context; Second, describe the composition and evolutionary characteristics of China’s triple knowledge spillovers under the current international situation; On this basis, we deduced the overall characteristics of triple knowledge spillovers and the theoretical model of the connection between triple knowledge spillovers and domestic innovation upgrades, and tested the relationship between triple knowledge spillovers and the improvement of China’s overall innovation strength under the condition of heterogeneous samples. This paper constructs a theoretical model to demonstrate the internal relationship between triple knowledge spillovers, and empirically tests the internal relationship between triple knowledge spillovers and domestic innovation upgrade under different sample conditions. The results show that: From the overall perspective, the total, direct and indirect effects of triple knowledge spillovers on domestic innovation upgrade are shown as positive promotion effects; From different perspectives, the combination of domestic foreign capital knowledge spillover and domestic capital knowledge spillover originating from the countries along the Belt and Road is positively promoting domestic innovation level in terms of the total effect, however, the direct effects of domestic foreign capital knowledge spillover and the indirect effects of reverse knowledge spillover are negatively correlated with domestic innovation upgrade; The total effect of triple knowledge spillovers originating from non-Belt and Road countries also has a positive effect on the promotion of domestic innovation, while the direct effect of reverse knowledge spillover is a suppression effect; All sample test results indicate that the technological gap between the knowledge spillover party and the knowledge receiver is beneficial to promote domestic innovation and upgrading, but the human capital gap between the two parties is negatively related to domestic innovation and upgrading. According to the test results, management enlightenment for improving China’s innovation level can be obtained: First, in the context of the return of high-end Western capital led by the United States and the continuous deepening of the “Belt and Road” initiative, strengthen investment in technologically powerful countries and actively introduce intellectual capital from countries along the “Belt and Road” initiative; Second, focus on cultivating China’s human capital, both quantity and quality. Our research shows that the more obvious the gap between domestic human capital and foreign human capital, the less conducive to China’s innovation and upgrading; Third, give full play to the government’s guiding function to stimulate the vitality of Chinese companies’ exchanges and interactions and the potential for targeted R & D.

摘要： 综合考究本土外资知识溢出、逆向知识溢出和本土内资知识溢出对新兴经济体的系统性影响，有助于深度认识知识溢出体系在国内创新升级中所扮演角色，发现创新拐点。文中通过构建理论模型论证了三重知识溢出的整体关联性，并在异质性样本条件下实证了该整体与我国创新升级之间的内在关联。结果显示：整体视角下，三重知识溢出对国内创新升级的总效应、直接效应和间接效应均表现为正向促进作用；分视角下，源于一带一路沿线国家的外资知识溢出和本土内资知识溢出组合在总效应方面正向促进国内创新升级，但本土外资知识溢出的直接效应以及逆向知识溢出发挥的间接效应与国内创新升级表现为负相关；来自非沿线国家的三重知识溢出总效应对国内创新升级同样表现出正向促进作用，但逆向知识溢出的直接效应表现为抑制作用；此外，所有样本检验结果均表明知识溢出方和知识接收方之间技术差距有益于促进国内创新升级，但双方的人力资本差距与国内创新升级负相关。