Abstract: As the main engine of industrial development, the digital economy exerts a significant driving effect on industrial leapfrogging. To investigate whether and how the digital economy promotes industrial leapfrogging, this study conducted an in-depth analysis using data from 30 provincial regions in China from 2011 to 2021. The research findings indicate that the digital economy significantly propels industrial leapfrogging, with industrial digitization making a more significant contribution. Simultaneously, both industrial digitization and digital industrialization exhibit an "inverted U-shaped" trend associated with industrial leapfrogging. In addition, through a threshold model, this paper finds that grasping the scale of industrial agglomeration plays a crucial role in the process of digital economy driving industrial leapfrogging. This study deepens the understanding of the factors of industrial leapfrogging and the effects and mechanisms of the digital economy on industrial development, highlights the importance of the quality of technological innovation and industrial ecology, and provides both a theoretical basis and empirical support for government policy-making in the development of the digital economy.

摘要： 数字经济作为产业发展的主要引擎，对产业跃迁具有显著的驱动效应。为了探究数字经济是否以及如何促进产业跃迁，本研究利用2011-2021年我国30个省域数据进行深入分析。研究结果表明，数字经济显著推动产业跃迁，其中产业数字化对产业跃迁的贡献更为突出。同时，产业数字化和数字产业化呈现出与产业跃迁关联的“倒U型”趋势。此外，本研究通过门槛模型发现在数字经济推动产业跃迁的过程中，把握产业集聚规模具有关键作用。本研究深化了对产业跃迁动因和数字经济之于产业发展效应和机制的理解，突显科技创新质量和产业生态的重要性，为政府制定数字经济发展政策提供了理论依据和实证支持。