Abstract: Disruptive technology follows a bottom-up performance development trajectory. Based on creation of new technical attribute set, disruptive technology introduces a new competitive platform, substitutes prior arts, and changes enterprises’ technical competition situation. Early identification and detection towards disruptive technology will provide timely adjustment of technology innovation strategy and avoid risks at company level. Existing identification research mostly adopted subjective methods, while objective methods based on patent analysis have not been applied. In order to solve the above problem, this article proposes a identification framework towards disruptive technology. Based on patent data, this framework introduces ideas of attributes innovation and modified promotion mechanism of technological development. Then species invasion model and set pair analysis are used to figure out the similarity of attribute sets before/after the emergence of new technologies in order to measure the disruptive intensity of certain technology. Finally, validity testament is organized using Derwent patent data in field of vehicle’s lithium-ion-cell.

Key words: disruptive technology, species invasion analysis, set pair analysis, identification

摘要： 颠覆性技术遵循自下而上的性能轨道，以新技术属性集为依据引入新竞争平台，替代现有技术范式，改变企业技术竞争态势。对其进行早期识别和探测，将有利于企业及时调整技术创新战略，规避风险。现有的颠覆性技术识别研究多采用主观方法，而基于专利分析的客观分析方法尚未得到充分认识和应用。为解决上述问题，本文提出一个颠覆性技术的识别框架，该框架以专利数据为依据，以属性创新和改进的技术发展推动机制为基础，借鉴物种入侵模型和集对分析方法，通过计算新技术出现前后的属性集相似度，来对颠覆性强度值进行测度。最后，以德温特专利数据库中的汽车锂电池技术专利为实例对模型的有效性进行验证。

关键词: 颠覆性技术, 物种入侵模型, 集对分析, 识别