Abstract: As is a pattern of scientific conversation, the citation is an important method to avoid academic plagiarism and guarantee the reliability of research, which is a must be existing premise for academy. The research based on rationalism, empiricism and utilitarianism manifests that using citation analysis to evaluate academy is rational and reasonable, but to its specific evaluation function, there is no direct connection between the rationality and reliability. Using it as a tool to evaluate academy, the premise is to differentiate the substantial citation, procedural citation and formalistic citation, meanwhile, two kinds of behavioral mistakes, abandoned true errors and take pseudo errors, are often happened during the process of citation, the statistics and analysis on their probability is needed.

摘要： 引文作为科学对话的一种方式是避免学术剽窃和保证学术研究可靠性的重要方法，其存在具有客观必然性。基于理性主义、经验主义和功利主义知识观的研究表明，引文分析法用于学术评价具有合理性。引文分析法的合理性与学术评价功能的可靠性之间不存在直接的联系。使用引文分析评价学术的条件是对引文索引数据库中的实质性引文、程序性引文和形式性引文进行区分，同时，还要对引用过程中引用行为发生弃真错误和取伪错误两类错误的概率进行统计分析。

关键词: 引文分析, 学术评价, 实质性引用, 程序性引用, 形式性引用, citation analysis, academic evaluation, substantial citation, procedural citation, formalistic citation