Abstract: The development and improvement process of solar cell technology can be naturally described as a series of optimization problem solving processes which involve many innovation agents such as enterprises and consumers. Enterprises improve technology by modifying on their own technology and learning from other enterprise, and the market selects the fittest to survive. These observations lead to a multiagent system model for technology evolution. This paper builds a multiagent model for solar cell technology in which each technology (along with its developer) is represented by an agent. A multi-agent genetic algorithm is used to simulate technological innovation and market selection processes. The results are validated with actual cell technology evolution data, and the effects of the innovation cost rate on the technology evolution trajectory are analyzed.

摘要： 将太阳能电池技术的发展和完善过程自然地描述为由众多由企业和消费者等创新主体共同参与建立和求解一系列优化问题的过程，这些优化问题的求解主要通过各个企业对自身技术的改变、对其他企业技术的学习以及市场优胜劣汰来实现。据此为太阳能电池技术演化建立了一个多主体系统的描述模型，其中每个技术及其研发者对应于一个主体，用多主体遗传算法进行技术创新和市场选择，并通过仿真模拟验证了太阳能电池技术的演化过程，分析了创新成本率对该技术演化轨道的影响。

关键词: 新兴技术演化, 优化, 太阳能电池技术, 多主体遗传算法, the evolution of emerging technology, optimization, solar cell technology, multiagent genetic algorithm