Abstract: Intuitive judgments are frequently employed in entrepreneurial decision-making, but are barely studied by the theoretical field. Based on Naturalistic Decision Making theory and Heuristics and Biases theory and their integration, this paper reviews previous studies related to intuitive judgments and points out that the question “are entrepreneurial intuitive judgments reliable” can not be simply answered or concluded with “yes” or “no”. The essential issue behind the question is the quality of entrepreneurial intuitive judgments, which requires entrepreneurs make good use of skilled intuitions and avoid using heuristic intuitions. After analyzing the objective and subjective factors that influence entrepreneurial intuitive judgments, this paper establishes an action framework for the improvements of such judgments, and suggests that entrepreneurs are able to improve the quality of such judgments by accumulating experience and skills, improving data collection ability, upgrading information processing ability, and assembling external resources.

摘要： 直觉判断在创业者的决策实践中如影随形，但理论界对创业直觉判断的探查却十分鲜见。本文依据自然决策理论、启发式偏见理论及两个理论的交叉，挖掘创业直觉判断的分析脉络，发现“创业直觉判断可靠吗”不能通过“是”或“否”下结论，其背后的本质问题是对创业直觉判断质量的评价，而善用熟练性直觉、避免启发性直觉是关键。本文在提炼创业直觉判断质量的主客观影响因素基础上，构建改善创业直觉可靠性的行动框架，认为经验与技能积累、数据收集能力改善、信息处理能力提升、外部资源整合等路径有助于提升创业直觉判断的质量。