Abstract: This paper measures the total factor productivity of China's manufacturing from 2001 to 2014 , and examines the contribution and threshold effect of institution and technology on produtctivity, then analyze the industrial differences in the source of produtivity growth. The results show that productivity driven by property rights structure and marketization grew at an average annual rate of 2%, higher than the annual contribution of technological innovation (1.7% ). Institution has a threshold effect on productivity, with the property structure changes and marketization, their contributions gradually decline, while R&D doesn’t have a threshold effect. The contribution of institutions and technology to productivity has a industrial heterogeneity, institutions’ contribution is greater in highly competitive industries and the low-tech industries, while the technological innovation’s contribution is great in general competitive industries and high-tech industries. The conclusion is helpful to clarify the direction and difference of industrial upgrading.

摘要： 采用2001-2014年中国制造业行业面板数据对全要素生产率进行测算，实证考察制造业创新增长中制度和技术的贡献及门槛特征，并分析制造业创新增长源泉的行业差异。研究发现：入世以来制造业生产率增长具有阶段性，产权结构变迁和市场化带动生产率年均增长2%，高于技术创新年均1.72%的贡献；制度对生产率具有门槛效应，随着产权结构变迁和市场化水平提高，其贡献逐渐减小，而研发创新没有表现出门槛效应；制度和技术对生产率的贡献存在行业异质性，高竞争性行业和中低技术产业中制度的贡献更大，一般竞争性行业和高技术产业中研发创新的贡献更大。本文结论有利于明确产业升级的战略方向与差异化路径。