Abstract: Firstly, based on the two image duality theory, the technology hatching innovation system is divided into three parts: resource subsystem, incubator innovation performance subsystem and innovation customer performance subsystem. Then, based on the coordinated coupling degree model, the degree of synergistic development of the 31 provincial technology incubators in 2009-2016 years was measured, and the spatial and temporal characteristics were revealed. Thirdly, the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model is established to explore the influence factors of regional innovation performance and its spatial spillover effect. At last, taking government support as threshold variable, establishing threshold regression model, and conduct a nonlinear test on the role of government support in the process of developing technology on regional innovation. The results showed that: (1) Synergy degree of technology incubating industry and government support have a significant positive effect on regional innovation, regional innovation was affected positively by itself and was affected negatively by the performance of adjacent areas .(2) There are the “direct effects” and “spillover effects” of Synergistic development of technology incubating industry on regional innovation. (3) As for the Synergy degree of technology incubating industry, its long-term effect is less than the short-term effect. In the short term, the spillover effect is greater than the direct effect; in the long term, the direct effect is greater than the spillover effect. (4) Government support negatively regulate the relationship between technology incubating industry cooperation and regional innovation. (5) In the process of collaborative development of technology incubating industry, government support has non-linear effects, and the negative regulation will be weaken. Some industrial policies and suggestions are put forward according to the above conclusions.

摘要： 文章基于二象对偶理论，将科技孵化创新系统划分成资源子系统、孵化器创新绩效子系统和创客创新绩效子系统三部分；基于协同度模型，对全国31 个省市区2009-2016年科技孵化产业协同发展程度进行测度，揭示其时空分异特征；建立动态空间杜宾模型，探究区域创新影响因素及其空间溢出效应；以政府支持为门限变量，建立门限回归模型，对“众创”背景下科技孵化产业发展过程中的政府支持作用进行非线性检验。结果表明：（1）孵化产业协同度与政府支持对区域创新产生显著正向促进作用，区域创新受自身上一期绩效正向影响，受上一期邻近地区绩效的负向影响（2）本地区孵化产业的协同发展程度与政府支持对区域创新存在直接效应以及空间溢出效应（3）产业协同度的长期效应小于短期效应。从短期看，溢出效应大于直接效应；从长期看，直接效应大于溢出效应（4）政府支持负向调节科技孵化产业协同度与区域创新之间关系（5）在孵化产业协同发展作用的过程中，政府支持存在非线性作用，其强度增加会削弱负向调节作用。根据上述结论提出若干产业政策与发展建议。