Abstract: Technology lock-in blocking the emergence and survival of disruptive innovation. Our paper divided the factors that lead to technology lock-in into two aspects: technical entanglement and interest correlation. The survival analysis method is used to study the survival state of 8106 technical standards from Searle Center Database. The results show that: (1) The more complex the technology is and the more industries, the easier it is to form technology lock-in; (2) the mechanism for maintaining the vested interests of enterprise is strongest, while the influence of the technical alliance and government intervention is the second; (3) Technology lock-in that lead by government is especially significant after the technology has survived for more than 20 years. In order to prevent technology lock-in, it is recommended to limit SEP owners to excessively capture technical monopoly interests, and encourage bottom-up multi-level technology alliances to participate in the formulation of technical standards. At the same time, the government should not participate too much in the technical standards setting process.

摘要： 技术锁定阻碍破坏性创新的出现和存活。本文将导致技术锁定的因素划分为技术缠结和利益关联两个方面，应用生存分析方法研究来自Searle Center Database的8106个技术标准的生存状况。研究表明：（1）技术越复杂、适用行业越多越容易形成技术锁定；（2）企业既得利益的锁定效应最强，而技术联盟和政府干预的影响次之；（3）政府干预导致的技术锁定效应在技术生存超过20年之后尤其明显。为了防止技术锁定，建议限制SEP拥有者过度攫取技术垄断利益，鼓励自下而上的多层次技术联盟参与制定技术标准，同时，政府不应过多参与技术标准制定过程。