Abstract: At present, China's urbanization process is at an important stage from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement". Using panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2019, a PVAR model covering the advancement of human capital, the agglomeration of high-tech industries, and the improvement of urbanization quality was constructed, and the dynamic interaction between the three was empirically analyzed. The results show that the lagging stage of human capital advancement has an impact coefficient of 0.198 at the 10% significance level. The advancement of human capital advancement mainly relies on its own inertia, and the agglomeration of high-tech industries has the least impact on it. The improvement of the quality of urbanization is an important factor in promoting advancement of human capital. The advancement of human capital and the agglomeration of high-tech industries are Granger causality, and the advancement of human capital and the improvement of the quality of urbanization both have a positive effect on the agglomeration of high-tech industries. The advancement of human capital is conducive to improving the quality of urbanization, but the long-term effects need to be strengthened. The role of the agglomeration of high-tech industries in promoting the improvement of urbanization quality needs to be strengthened.

摘要： 当前，中国城镇化进程正处于由“规模扩张”向“质量提升”的重要阶段。运用2004-2019年中国31个省份面板数据，构建了涵盖人力资本高级化、高技术产业集聚与城镇化质量提升的PVAR模型，实证分析了三者之间的动态互动关系。结果表明：滞后一期的人力资本高级化对其自身的影响系数在10%的显著性水平下为0.198。人力资本高级化的提升主要依靠自身惯性，高技术产业集聚对其影响最小，城镇化质量提升是促进人力资本高级化的重要因素。人力资本高级化与高技术产业集聚互为格兰杰因果关系，人力资本高级化和城镇化质量提升对高技术产业集聚均存在正向促进作用。人力资本高级化有利于提高城镇化质量，但长期效应有待强化。高技术产业集聚对城镇化质量改善的促进作用有待加强。