Abstract: The frequent occurrence of major international events has heightened countries' concern about the vulnerability of their local economies caused by their integration into the global value chain division of labor system. Some countries have resorted to trade barriers and called for "de-globalization" through value chain linkages back to the home country in an attempt to reshape their economic resilience, but whether this is a long-term strategy to help economic recovery or a short-term illusion of a glimpse of the frog is yet to be confirmed. This paper identifies the forward and backward correlation characteristics and functional specialization attributes of GVCs in each country, and incorporates technology spillover and market correlation into the framework of analysis of forward and backward correlation of GVCs on economic resilience by overcoming endogeneity of instrumental variables estimation, and finds that both forward and backward linkages of GVCs favor economic resilience remodeling. However, in terms of source country heterogeneity, GVCs linkages with limited embedded parties and commodity providers significantly inhibits economic resilience reshaping. In terms of the mediating effect, export technological sophistication plays a mediating role between the forward and backward correlations of GVCs and economic resilience remodeling. It is further found that the positive effect of technology spillovers of forward linkages on economic resilience is only reflected in the linkages with innovation activities, advanced manufacturing and service providers. The positive impact of asymmetric dependence on intermediate goods on economic resilience can hardly compensate for the negative impact of excessive forward linkages on economic resilience. The increase in backward linkages will lead to a higher rate of low value-added exports, which is not conducive to economic resilience reshaping. This study helps to enrich and expand the relationship between GVCs linkage and economic resilience from a new theoretical perspective, and reveals the illusion of "de-globalization" to avoid the systemic risk of GVCs from the level of technology spillover and market factors, which has important practical implications for the governance of a country's value chain.

摘要： 重大国际事件的频发，加剧了各国对融入全球价值链分工体系而引发本土经济脆弱性的担忧。部分国家开始诉诸贸易壁垒，试图通过价值链环节向国内回流等“去全球化”的方式，重塑本国经济韧性，但此举究竟是助力经济复苏的长计远策，还是管窥蛙见的短期幻觉有待证实。本文通过识别各国GVCs前后向关联特征以及功能专业化属性，将技术溢出和市场关联要素统一纳入GVCs前后向关联对经济韧性的分析框架。研究发现：GVCs前向、后向关联度均有利于经济韧性重塑。但从来源国异质性来看，与有限嵌入方、大宗商品提供方的GVCs关联却显著抑制了经济韧性重塑。从技术溢出的中介效应来看，出口技术复杂度在GVCs前向、后向关联度与经济韧性重塑之间发挥了中介作用。且进一步研究发现，前向和后向关联的技术溢出效应对经济韧性的正向影响仅体现在与创新活动、先进制造和服务提供方的关联上；从市场关联要素的中介效应来看，中间品非对称依赖对经济韧性的正向影响难以弥补过度前向关联提升对经济韧性的负面影响；后向关联度提升会致使低增值出口率提升，不利于经济韧性重塑。本研究从技术溢出和市场要素层面揭示了“逆全球化”规避GVCs系统性风险的幻觉所在，对于一国价值链治理具有重要的现实启示意义。