Abstract: Under the impact of major public health events, the current speed and direction of scientific and technological development have burst out with new characteristics. Based on the theory and empirical basis of disaster economics, this paper selects multiple groups of panel and time series data, and uses the composite control method, breakpoint regression and vector autoregressive model to investigate the inducement and reverse effect of modern disasters on technological innovation from two aspects of medical technology and digital technology. The research findings are as follows: (1) The COVID-19 not only induced technological progress in medical related fields, but also forced the application and innovation of digital technology; (2) In the short term, the negative impact of the increase in epidemic intensity on innovation will reach its peak within one and a half months, but the significance of the impact will decrease rapidly after that, and the negative impact will gradually converge to the zero level; (3) At the international level, compared with the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea, the induced effect and anti-driving effect of the epidemic on scientific and technological innovation are more significant in China, showing the resilience of China's scientific and technological development in the context of the epidemic. The research conclusion reveals the conditional impact of modern epidemic on scientific and technological innovation, and also provides reference value for the construction of China's emergency innovation system, social digital transformation and international scientific and technological competition in the post-epidemic era.

摘要： 受重大公共卫生事件冲击，当下科技发展速度与方向皆迸发出新的变化特征。 本文基于灾害经济学理论与实证基础，选取多组面板与时间序列数据，采用合成控制法、断点回归和向量自回归模型，从医学技术和数字技术两大方面考察现代疫灾对技术创新产生的诱发与倒逼作用。研究发现：（1）新冠疫情不仅诱发了医学相关领域技术进步，而且倒逼了数字技术的应用创新；（2）短期来看，疫情强度提升对创新的负向影响在一个半月内达到峰值，但作用显著性会继此以后迅速降低，负向冲击也会逐步收敛于零水平线；（3）国际层面，相比美国、欧洲和日韩，疫情对科技创新所形成的诱发效应和倒逼效应在中国更为显著，展现出疫情背景下中国科技发展的韧性。研究结论揭示了现代疫灾对科技创新产生的条件性影响，也为后疫情时代中国应急创新体系建设、社会数字化转型及国际科技竞争提供参考价值。