关键词: 科技创新, 农业产业结构优化, ADL模型, 误差修正模型, 预测方差分解, 耦合规律, Technology innovation, Optimization of agricultural structure, ADL model, ECM, VAR model forecast variance analysis, Coupling rule

Abstract: From economy development rule, along with the technology innovation continuously, agricultural industry structure in continuous adjustment and optimization, follow the coupling law of agriculture industrial structure optimization and technology innovation. But this rule in China varies, as the level of technology innovation rise ceaselessly, agricultural industry structure optimization and technology innovation increasing trend of deviation. This paper constructs the coupled evaluation model of agricultural industry structure optimization and technology innovation, using the factor analysis method respectively, will measure the technology innovation and agricultural industry structural optimization level of multiple variable data concentrated, and through the co integration regression analysis, VAR model forecast variance decomposition method to evaluate agricultural industry structure optimization, evolution trend and direction, which coupling and deviation with technology innovation. On this foundation, this paper puts forward countermeasures to play further function about technological innovation on agricultural industry structure optimization, realization two coordinated development; this study will provide a reference to make corresponding policy.