关键词: 技术发展, S曲线, 生命周期, 美国, technology development, S-curve, life-cycle, U.S.

Abstract: Based on the S-curve model, we study the development path and life-cycle characters of major technology fields of the U.S. using the patent data from 1963 to 2008. The results indicate the development path of major technology fields well fit the S-curve, and at the second phase of the S-curve, these technology fields have more patents and last longer. The majority of U.S. technology fields are in their mature period. Only the communications equipment field is in the growth period. Moreover, the electronic information and its related industries still have much development potential and they may become the leading technology fields for the further development of the U.S. national innovation capability. The pharmaceutical and medicines field is still waiting for another technological revolution and a new development life-cycle.