关键词: 技术轨道, 专利引文, 动态性, 太阳能电池, technological trajectory, patent citation, dynamic, solar cell

Abstract: Propose a method which is through observing the technology development phases, and using patents citation and citation network to identify dynamic changes of technical trajectory. Comparing with the static technological trajectory studies which do not divide the time phase, this method highlights the dynamic nature of the technology in the development process, and improves the accuracy of the analysis of key technology on technological path. In addition, this method can be used to guide the countries, regions and enterprises to determine the R & D strategy. Combined with the empirical research of solar cell technology, it not only explains the dynamical identification method of technological trajectory, but also describes the process of technology changes in detail. The research result shows that the technical trajectory of solar cell is relatively stable now, but accompanied by the resolution of technical problems in the application process, the path will face major changes in the future, which provide the opportunity to enter the critical path of mainstream for Chinese enterprises.