• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (11): 1630-1638.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

战略性新兴产业的生命周期及其演化规律研究——基于英美主导产业回溯的案例研究

王少永,霍国庆,孙皓,杨阳   

  1. 中国科学院大学科技管理学院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-18 修回日期:2014-06-18 出版日期:2014-11-15 发布日期:2014-11-14
  • 通讯作者: 王少永
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD143)

The Study on the Lifecycle and Evolution of Strategic Emerging Industries-Based on the Case Study of Leading Industry of United Kingdom and American

  • Received:2013-12-18 Revised:2014-06-18 Online:2014-11-15 Published:2014-11-14

摘要: 从产业发展史来看,各个时代都有各自的战略性新兴产业。由理论分析可知战略性新兴产业属于战略产业演化过程中的初级阶段,战略性新兴产业在产业内外因素的推动下逐渐演化为主导产业。结合产业演化理论、产业生命周期理论和对英国汽车产业、美国信息技术产业的回溯研究发现,战略性新兴产业作为战略产业的初级阶段,其产业生命周期因受产业内外不同因素不同程度的影响而表现出“增长——放缓——增长”、“增长——停滞——增长”或“增长——下滑——增长”的震荡期。研究结果还表明产业外部环境、政府扶持、产业创新、产业平台、风险控制以及产业链/产业集群的培育是战略性新兴产业成功演化发展的关键要素,这些要素通过相互协同共同促进了战略性新兴产业向主导产业的成功演化和升级。

Abstract: From the perspective of the industrial development history, strategic emerging industries aren’t new things, which mean that every era has its own strategic emerging industries. Based on lifecycle theory and industrial evolution theory, we analysis the developing process of the automobile industry of United Kingdom and the information technology industry of American. The analysis results showed that, as the primary stage of Strategic industries, the lifecycle of Strategic Emerging Industries undergo the vibrating period because of the impacts of different factors, such as: “Zooming—Slow down—Zooming”, “Zooming—Cease—Zooming”, “Zooming—Declining—Zooming”. And the key successful factors that influence the evolution of Strategic Emerging Industries contain industrial environment, government support, industrial innovation, industrial platform, risk control and the cultivation of the industrial chain and industrial cluster, which facilitate the evolution of Strategic Emerging Industries synergistically.

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