我国公民科学素质变迁的年龄、时期和世代效应

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 公民科学素质是反映一个国家或地区教育事业改革和发展水平、科学技术传播与普及程度以及社会发展变迁的重要指标，我国公民科学素质水平反映了建国以来这些因素的聚集结果。基于2010-2020年三次中国公民科学素质调查数据，构建“年龄—时期—世代”模型，探讨年龄、时期和世代效应对我国公民科学素质变迁的贡献情况。研究发现，世代效应对我国公民科学素质提升具有显著作用，教育事业发展使年轻世代为科学素质整体水平快速提升提供增量；《全民科学素质行动计划纲要（2006-2010-2020年）》的实施推动公民科学素质建设长足发展，产生了显著的时期效应；而个体生命周期中不同阶段的也存在显著影响作用，青少年是科学素质提升的关键期，中老年对科学素质提升产生制约性影响。通过解析公民科学素质发展的内在因素和外部因素，进一步加深对科学素质发展规律的认识，有助于探索新时期我国公民科学素质建设的有效路径。

Abstract: The level of civic scientific literacy is an indicator reflecting the results of educational reform, science communication, and the progress of general society development in a country or region. In view of the rapid development of China in recent decades, civic scientific literacy reflects the accumulation of these factors. Based on the series survey data, using Age-Period-Cohort model, the age, period and generation effects to growing Chinese civic scientific literacy got analyzed, and the specific contributions of education, science communication and social environment to civic scientific literacy also got cleared, revealing the internal and external factors of the development of civic scientific literacy. Firstly, based on this APC model, our main hypotheses got validated. (1) Age, period and cohort effects have significant influence on the development of civic scientific literacy; (2)Age effect contributes differently in different stages of life, and the change of scientific literacy in human life cycle shows a relatively gentle inverted U-shaped curve, which is positive before 35 years of age and after that negative; (3)Period effect is reflected in a certain period of social change, and the construction of civic scientific literacy in recent 10 years has played a significant role in promoting scientific literacy; (4) The contribution of the cohort effect to the promotion of scientific literacy is mainly reflected in the replacement of cohorts, and its impact is much greater than the age and period effects, and its main source is the increment of the new cohort of high-literate people formed by the development of education to the overall population. When education reaches a high-quality and stable state, the difference in scientific literacy between cohorts will be greatly reduced, and the level of civic scientific literacy will also enter a stage of steady development. At that time, the promotion of scientific literacy will mainly rely on the contribution of the period effect and the age effect, which is also the main feature of the current development of civic scientific literacy in the United States, Japan, Europe and other countries and regions. Then, the period effect of civic scientific literacy also got analyzed from the three dimensions of education, popularization and dissemination. The following findings are obtained: (1) Except for Cohort 1, the Internet has the highest explanation for the scientific literacy of all cohorts. The contribution of traditional media represented by TV and emerging media represented by the Internet to the development of scientific literacy shows a relationship of ebb and flow; (2)Science and technology venues have a greater interpretation for the promotion of scientific literacy, while natural museums have a relatively low interpretation for the promotion of scientific literacy; (3)The interpretation of public library on the promotion of scientific literacy of all cohorts is relatively large and stable, indicating that public library plays a fundamental role in promoting the civic scientific literacy; (4)For the lifelong learning stage of adults, reading books has a limited explanation for the promotion of the scientific literacy of the whole population, but it makes a great contribution to that of the new cohort; (5)Boosting the promotion of civic scientific literacy requires the joint action of multiple factors. It is necessary to further improve civic scientific literacy construction ability and meet the scientific literacy needs of different groups in the new era with diversified, generalized and accurate popular science public services.

任磊张超郭凤林. 我国公民科学素质变迁的年龄、时期和世代效应[J]. 科学学研究, 2022, 40(9): 1544-1554.

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