• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 424-434.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

“双碳”挤压、经济增长与创新驱动

李勃昕1,任赟2,2,韩先锋3   

  1. 1. 西安财经大学 公共管理学院
    2.
    3. 昆明理工大学管理与经济学院
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-28 修回日期:2022-05-12 出版日期:2023-03-15 发布日期:2023-03-15
  • 通讯作者: 李勃昕
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金青年项目“长三角区域一体化下科技资源共享的动态演化机制研究”;西安市科技计划软科学研究项目

“Dual-Carbon” Restriction, Economic Growth and Innovation Driving

  • Received:2021-12-28 Revised:2022-05-12 Online:2023-03-15 Published:2023-03-15

摘要: “双碳”目标为新时代高质量发展注入绿色基因,科学降碳至关重要。文章基于理论模型阐释经济增长与碳排放之间的原生演化关系,以“波特假说”剖析降碳减排对创新驱动经济增长的双向影响机制。实证研究发现:随着经济产出规模扩张,单位碳排放的经济贡献有所提升,而产业结构在低阶水平时,需要一定碳排放容忍度才能驱动结构升级。同时,CO2排放强度对创新驱动经济增长的调节效应具有较为复杂的动态演化规律,适度降碳约束能够撬动技术创新的最佳外延驱动力,而碳排放强度对创新驱动产业结构升级的调节影响存在边际递减特征。此外,CO2排放强度的调节效应具有时空异质性,创新驱动力最佳的门槛阈值在经济产出维度呈现出东高西低的顺势传导轨迹,而低强度CO2排放约束普遍更有利于创新驱动和产业升级。由此,“双碳”推行要科学研判、循序渐进,在降碳挤压、经济增长与创新驱动之间,寻求多维平衡和动态优化的实施策略。

Abstract: The “Dual-Carbon” target injects green genes in high-quality development in China new era, the key is how to reduce CO2 emission scientifically. Based on theoretical model, the paper explains the original evolution relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission, and deduces the dual influence mechanism of CO2 emission reduction on innovation driving economic growth with "Porter Hypothesis". Empirical research reveals that: with the economic output expansion, the economic contribution of unit CO2 emission has increased, and when the industrial structure in low level, it needs certain CO2 emission tolerance to drive upgrading. Meanwhile, the regulation effect of CO2 emission intensity on innovation driving economic growth has complex nonlinear evolution law. Moderate CO2 emission reduction constraints could pry the optimist extension driving force of technological innovation, and there is marginal decreasing effect with CO2 emission intensity on innovation driving industrial structure. In addition, the threshold adjustment effect of CO2 emission intensity has certain temporal and spatial heterogeneity, the threshold with the highest innovation driving force shows homeopathic transmission trend of high in the East and low in the West in economic output dimensions, and low intensity CO2 emission constraints are generally more conducive to innovation driving and industrial upgrading. Thusly, "Dual-Carbon" promotion should be judged scientifically and step by step, seek the implementation strategy of multi-dimensional balance and dynamic optimization between CO2 reduction squeeze, economic growth and innovation drive.