• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 757-765.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

老龄化背景下机器人自动化对就业的影响研究

张耀军1,2,张睿勍2   

  1. 1.
    2. 中国人民大学
  • 收稿日期:2023-02-27 修回日期:2023-06-06 出版日期:2024-04-15 发布日期:2024-04-15
  • 通讯作者: 张睿勍
  • 基金资助:
    中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金)

A Study on the Impact of Robotic Automation on Employment in the Context of Aging

  • Received:2023-02-27 Revised:2023-06-06 Online:2024-04-15 Published:2024-04-15

摘要: 自动化是新技术条件下诞生的对未来经济走向具有结构性影响的重要力量,在具有推动增长潜力的同时也对就业产生复杂影响。因此,在老龄化背景下研究自动化对就业的影响具有重要理论与现实意义。通过构建了包含65个国家(地区)1999~2019年的跨国面板数据的实证分析,发现自动化对就业率有显著负面影响。在此基础上,通过分析自动化对就业率的影响与人口结构在其中的调节作用,以及自动化影响就业率的具体机制表明,自动化对就业率产生的不良影响受人口结构调节。老龄化程度高的国家由于劳动市场竞争较低,自动化对就业率的负面影响会被老龄化缓解。此外,自动化对就业率的不良影响的重要途径在于其取代了制造业劳动者,这一效应在男性劳动者中表现尤为明显。对中国而言,大规模的自动化可以在保证就业率稳定的同时补充老龄化过程中的劳动供给,自动化可能是应对当下高速老龄化进程的有效手段之一。

Abstract: Automation, emerging as a significant force under the new technological paradigm, possesses a transformative effect on the direction of global economics. This powerful tool holds the potential to fuel growth; however, it also bears the prospect of negatively influencing employment rates. Therefore, it is essential, both from a theoretical and practical perspective, to delve into the study of automation's impact on employment in an aging context. To gain a comprehensive understanding of this phenomenon, we have conducted an extensive empirical analysis. Our research incorporates cross-country panel data from a diverse range of 65 countries and regions over the span of two decades, from 1999 to 2019. The results gleaned from this analysis reveal that automation considerably contributes to a decline in employment rates. Subsequently, we examined the automation's influence on employment, considering the moderating role of demographic changes, and further explored the specific mechanisms through which automation affects employment rates. The conclusions drawn from our study reveal that automation exerts a negative impact on employment rates, and that this influence is indeed moderated by demographic shifts. Interestingly, the negative effect of automation on employment rates tends to be eased in nations with high levels of aging, attributing to a reduction in labor market competition. This suggests that the impact of automation is not uniformly negative but can be mitigated under certain demographic conditions. Another notable discovery from our study pertains to the displacement effect of automation. It is evident that one of the significant ways automation adversely impacts employment rates is by displishing manufacturing workers. This displacement effect is especially profound among male workers, who are more likely to be engaged in manufacturing jobs. Turning our focus towards China, we have observed that large-scale automation could serve as a viable solution to address labor shortages amidst the aging process. This is while maintaining a stable employment rate. Consequently, automation may emerge as one of the practical means to tackle the current issue of rapid aging. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of automation and its relationship with employment is critical, not only for its potential to drive growth but also for its capacity to reshape the employment landscape in an aging world. In conclusion, our study deepens the understanding of the intricate relationship between automation and employment and helps policymakers navigate the challenges and opportunities brought about by technological advancements.