• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1200-1210.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

复杂网络视角下金融与科技耦合的脆弱性研究

王仁祥1,2,黄家祥3   

  1. 1.
    2. 武汉理工大学经济学院
    3. 武汉理工大学
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-17 修回日期:2023-07-17 出版日期:2024-06-15 发布日期:2024-06-15
  • 通讯作者: 黄家祥
  • 基金资助:
    经济高质量发展背景下金融与科技耦合脆弱性及有效性研究

Research on the vulnerability of the coupling of finance and technology from the perspective of complex network

  • Received:2023-03-17 Revised:2023-07-17 Online:2024-06-15 Published:2024-06-15

摘要: 金融科技化和科技金融化已成为经济发展的常态及特征,对金融与科技耦合的 脆弱性研究是对系统性风险的“基因性”探究,具有重要价值和意义。基于经济高质量发展背景,构建金融与科技耦合网络模型对我国金融与科技耦合的脆弱性展开研究。实证表明:首先,金融业与科技业的行业耦合度随经济向高质量转型发展整体上呈上升趋势,高质量科技创新成为促进科技业自身发展及金融与科技良性耦合的关键。其次,中小型企业在提升耦合网络效率上发挥着重要作用,中小型企业之间紧密耦合现象是金融与科技耦合系统的一个重要结构特征。再次,金融与科技耦合的脆弱性在不断下降,极其重要性企业对耦合系统的风险影响力逐渐减弱。研究还发现,企业规模仍然是决定其脆弱性冲击力(脆弱性被激发所形成的冲击力)的关键,中国工商银行、中国建设银行等国有大型商业银行脆弱性冲击力最强,但其风险外溢性较弱。最后从破解中小型企业投融资难题、风险监管策略选择及降低耦合脆弱性三方面给出政策建议。

Abstract: Driven by the information revolution, the coupled development paradigm of "integration but independence, mutual promotion but mutual restriction" between finance and technology has gradually become a consensus, and finance technicalization and technology financialization have become the normality and characteristic of economic development. Although the coupling of finance and technology is deepening the integration of finance industry and technology industry, it also increases the concealment and complexity of systemic risk. Research on the vulnerability of the coupling of finance and technology is a "genetic" exploration of systemic risk, which is of great value and significance. Based on the background of high-quality economic development, the process of economic transformation to high-quality development is divided into the turning period, the entering period and the development period, and the coupled network model of finance and technology is constructed by using complex network theory, which deeply reveals the basic topological properties and structural characteristics of the coupled network, and the vulnerability of the coupled system is also investigated in the three periods. Empirical research shows that: first of all, the industry coupling degree between finance industry and technology industry is on the rise with the economic transformation to high-quality development. High-quality technology innovation has become the key to promote the development of technology industry and the benign coupling of finance and technology. Secondly, small and medium-sized enterprises play an important role in improving the efficiency of coupled network. The tight coupling between small and medium-sized enterprises is an important structural feature of the coupled system. Thirdly, the vulnerability of the coupling of finance and technology is declining, and the influence of extremely important enterprises on the risk of the coupling system is gradually weakening. In addition, it is also found that the size of an enterprise is still the key to determine its vulnerability impact force (the impact force formed when vulnerability is stimulated). Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and other large state-owned commercial banks have the strongest vulnerability impact force, but their risk spillover is weak. The enlightenments and policy suggestions are as follows: firstly, the convergence and driving role of medium-sized enterprises should be stimulated, and the stepped mutual promotion mode can be tried to solve the investment and financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises. Secondly, the regulatory strategy of "too big to fail" is more suitable for the risk management of China's coupling system of finance and technology than the management concept of "too connected to fail". Despite their outstanding performance in improving network efficiency, the vulnerability impact of small and medium-sized enterprises is still much weaker than large enterprises. It indicates that "too related" enterprises will not have a big risk impact on the system, but "too big" enterprises still have the potential to have the greatest risk impact ability in the current coupling system of finance and technology in China. Thirdly, enhancing the ability of high-quality innovation and continuous innovation, activating and improving the efficiency of the coupling system with high-quality innovation supply, and promoting the coordinated and stable development of the subsystem with continuous innovation are the keys to reduce the coupling vulnerability of finance and technology.