• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (5): 1090-1101.

• 前沿与观点 • 上一篇    下一篇

智库议题注意力分配的驱动因素研究

孔媛,朱旭峰   

  1. 清华大学公共管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-22 修回日期:2023-11-06 出版日期:2025-05-15 发布日期:2025-05-15
  • 通讯作者: 朱旭峰

Key Determinants of Think Tank Attention in China

  • Received:2023-09-22 Revised:2023-11-06 Online:2025-05-15 Published:2025-05-15
  • Contact: xufeng zhu

摘要: 哪些因素决定了智库议题注意力分配?中国智库所处的政策知识市场正在经历快速发展。在新的市场环境中,议题注意力分配成为中国智库最重要的生产决策,如何在多元政策议题间分配有限资源,成为关乎智库生存的重大问题。本文提出供给方-需求方框架,理解市场环境下智库议题注意力的分配决策;利用社交媒体大数据和机器学习方法形成了2016-2020年中国智库议题注意力数据库;组合包括国务院常务会议、百度指数等在内的多元数据开展实证设计和分析研究。研究结果显示,智库议题注意力受到来自供给方和需求方多重复杂因素的影响。政策知识市场的快速形成与发展,在推动中国智库走向职业化的同时,也促使智库需要更灵敏地感知外部环境的变化、以更高的效率完成资源在多元政策议题间的配置。

Abstract: What factors determine the attention allocation of think tanks? The policy knowledge market in China is currently experiencing rapid development. Think tanks are witnessing substantial growth in terms of institutional size and research output, accompanied by a noticeable surge in knowledge demands from both the government and the public. The widespread adoption of social media has also further bridged the information gap between the supply and demand sides. In this evolving market landscape, the allocation of attention to policy issues has become a pivotal decision-making process for think tanks. Efficiently distributing limited resources across a spectrum of policy issues has a profound impact on the sustainability of think tanks. This article introduces a supply-demand framework to elucidate how think tanks allocate attention to policy issues. In a market environment, think tanks determine the policy issues they focus on, not solely based on their supply-side characteristics but, more importantly, by being responsive to dynamic shifts in external policy knowledge demands. The government and the public, as core actors within the policy system, directly influence think tanks' allocation of attention through their demand signals. We have constructed a novel database to measure think tanks' issue attention in China from 2016 to 2020 by utilizing social media data and text classification algorithms. Leveraging the vast amount of objective data from think tanks on social media platforms in China, we have conducted data collection, cleansing, and analysis over a five-year period. This has resulted in a comprehensive dataset comprising over 230,000 posts published by 204 Chinese think tanks between 2016 and 2020, with a total character count exceeding 250 million. To identify the policy issues that think tanks pay attention to, we have employed the unsupervised topic model, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), effectively capturing the changes in attention across 25 policy topics within the Chinese think tank community from 2016 to 2020. Subsequently, we have developed an innovative empirical framework that integrates multiple data sources to test the theoretical framework and research hypotheses outlined above. This study collects and combines diverse data sources, including State Council executive meetings and Baidu Index. This research reveals the multifaceted factors influencing think tanks' issue attention, stemming from both supply and demand dynamics. The rapid emergence and growth of the policy knowledge market not only drive think tanks towards professionalization but also underscore the importance of their ability to sense external environmental changes and optimize resource allocation across various policy issues. Think tanks in China are increasingly recognizing the importance of being agile in responding to evolving policy knowledge demands to maintain their relevance and effectiveness. The theoretical contribution of this study primarily lies in several aspects. Concerning think tank research, this paper systematically discusses the driving factors in the policy knowledge production process of think tanks. In the context of issue attention research, this paper expands the scope of issue attention. Last but not least, this study's findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, think tanks, and researchers seeking to understand the evolving dynamics of the policy knowledge market in China.