Abstract: The identification of core technologies is an important part of technological innovation. Identifying the core technologies of AAL monitoring for the elderly plays a significant role in predicting the development trend of technology and improving the ability to cope with the technological needs of the aging society. The existing research focuses on analyzing the cross-impact relationship of techniques, and the core technology identification based on the cross-impact of technology has not been fully recognized and applied. In view of this, this paper puts forward a core technology recognition research framework based on cross-impact of technology, which is based on core technologies characters and technical cross-impact theory. Firstly, this paper describes the concept of "core technology", and analyzes the characteristics of core technologies; Secondly, in order to overcome the shortcomings of traditional PCIA algorithm in identifying core technology, which is difficult to directly apply conditional probability estimating the technological impact, we propose NPCIA algorithm to measure the cross-impact of technologies, and verify the effectiveness of NPCIA algorithm by analyzing the mature technology that the core technology already knows, and then put forward a core technology identification model based on NPCIA algorithm; Finally, the proposed model is applied to the AAL monitoring technology for the elderly and the effectiveness of the proposed core technology identification model is verified.

摘要： 核心技术的识别是技术创新的重要环节，发现面向老年人的AAL监测领域核心技术，对预测该领域的技术发展趋势，提升应对老龄化社会技术需求能力有重要意义。已有研究聚集于分析技术交叉影响关系，基于技术交叉影响的核心技术识别尚未得到充分认识和应用。鉴于此，本文提出了基于技术交叉影响的核心技术识别模型，该模型以核心技术特征与技术交叉影响理论为基础。首先，阐述“核心技术”的概念，分析核心技术应具备的特性；其次，针对传统PCIA算法在核心技术识别中，难以直接套用条件概率计算技术交叉影响的不足，提出NPCIA算法测度技术交叉影响，并通过对核心技术已知的成熟技术分析，验证NPCIA算法的有效性，进而给出一种基于NPCIA算法的核心技术识别模型；最后，将提出的基于NPCIA的核心技术识别模型应用于面向老年人的AAL监测技术领域，验证所提核心技术识别模型的有效性