Abstract: Cultivation of adolescents' core literacies in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is the priority for promoting high-quality development of education and economy. However, the key factors that motivate adolescents to pursue STEM careers should be explored. This article aimed to use multi-level mixed Logistic models to examine the effects of family science capital and scientific literacy on STEM career expectations, using the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data among four provinces/municipalities in China. The study found that parents both involved in science-related fields had significant effects on their children's opportunities and advantages in pursuing STEM careers, while the impact of the mother's occupations was insignificant. Family science capital could be merged with family material and educational resources and cultural capital for intergenerational transmission. Shapley decomposition showed that scientific literacy was the most important factor that ed adolescents to pursue STEM careers, with a relative contribution rate of 24.88%, while family science capital was significantly lower, accounting for 5.4%. The pathway to encourage adolescents who lack family science capital is to improve scientific literacy and develop the comparative advantage of mathematics. The education system should be increase more adolescents to pursue scientific career ideals, to strengthen early scientific enlightenment education and reverse prejudices against female's scientific career choices and opportunities.

摘要： 培养青少年在科学、技术、工程和数学(STEM)领域核心素养，是适应未来劳动力市场对科技创新型人才需求的重中之重，但驱使青少年追求STEM职业的关键性因素仍亟待探索。基于国际学生评估项目(PISA)2018年中国四省市学生测试数据，构建多层混合Logistic模型探查家庭科学资本与科学素养对青少年STEM职业期望的影响效应及作用路径。研究发现，持有不同家庭科学资本的个体显现出科学职业期望的倾向性不同。父母双方或父亲涉足科学相关领域显著增加其子代追求STEM职业机会优势，但母亲从事科学相关职业的影响甚微。家庭科学资本只有在具备高水平科学素养或数学相对优势的条件下，才能依赖家庭物质资源、家庭教育资源以及家庭文化资本进行有效传递。Shapley组群分解显示，高水平科学素养是驱使青少年追求STEM职业的关键因素，其相对贡献率达24.88%；先赋性的家庭科学资本相对贡献率较低，约占5.4%。培养和提升科学素养与形塑数学相对优势是驱使家庭科学资本匮乏的青少年追求STEM职业的必要途径。引导青少年形成科学职业偏好，重在增强早期科学启蒙教育，纠正对女性科学职业选择的偏见，注重保障均等享有激发科学家潜质的公平发展机会。