Abstract: Against the background of the global COVID-19 epidemic and the great changes against globalization, China's industrial technology chain is facing tremendous risks. It is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the risks of industrial technology chain based on scientific evaluation methods. Combined with the theory of technology gap and resource dependence, a three-dimensional risk measurement model of "technology level gap, technology value and substitutability" is constructed. Three major links and 15 major technologies in the chip field were selected as samples, and 443285 invention patent data were obtained to measure the risks faced by the chip industry technology chain in mainland China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe and other five countries (regions) and the multi-stage evolution characteristics. The research finds that the risk index of the chip industry technology chain in Japan and the United States is the smallest, and that in mainland China is the largest; The risk index of the United States in IC design and Japan in IC manufacturing has been at the lowest level for a long time. South Korea and Europe face certain risks in all aspects. The risks faced by mainland China in all aspects are on the decline, but still relatively large. The research enriches the theoretical connotation and measurement dimension of industrial technology chain risk. The full quantitative measurement method based on the invention patent data provides a new methodology for the risk assessment of industrial technology chain. The research results are of enlightening significance to the study and judgment of the international technology situation, the prediction and investigation of industrial chain risks, and the improvement of the resilience of industrial technology chains.

摘要： 全球新冠疫情与逆全球化等大变局冲击下，我国产业技术链面临巨大风险。识别产业技术链风险，需要基于科学的评价方法对其进行全面评估。针对产业技术链风险研究的理论争议和测度方法问题，基于技术差距和资源依赖理论，构建“技术水平差距、技术价值和可替代性”三维度的风险测度模型。选择芯片领域3大环节、共15个主要技术为样本，443285条发明专利数据，测度中国内地[ 本文使用中国内地专利发明数据的原因如下：一方面，由于技术保护受地理区位限制，中国台湾的发明专利并不能被中国内地直接使用；另一方面，虽然中国台湾在芯片制造领域具有较强的技术能力，但经过专利统计分析发现，中国台湾拥有的发明专利大部分是由美国和日本等申请并控制的，中国台湾作为专利申请人的发明专利占比较少。 ]、日本、韩国、美国、欧洲等五国（地区）芯片产业技术链的结构、运行情况、面临的风险及多阶段演化特征。研究发现，日本和美国的芯片产业技术链的风险指数最小，中国内地面临的风险最大；美国在IC设计环节、日本在IC制造环节的风险指数长期处于最低位置，韩国和欧洲在各环节均面临一定风险，中国内地在各环节面临的风险均呈下降趋势，但仍较大。研究丰富了产业技术链风险的理论内涵及测度维度。基于发明专利数据的全量化测度方法，为全面开展产业技术链风险评价提供了新的方法论。研究结果对国际技术形势研判、产业链风险预测和排查、提高产业技术链韧性等具有启示意义。