Abstract: The upgrade and catch-up of manufacturing industries’ technology sophistication are the main methods to change the developing way of Chinese economy, how will the cost rise and inadequate foreign demand affect the sophistication of manufacturing industries? Through extending the model of Lin(2002), this paper constructs a micro-tool to discern the sophistication of Chinese manufacturing industries, with 965992 groups data of enterprise level，we estimate the effects of cost rise and inadequate export to the sophistication of Chinese manufacturing industries. The results show that :(1) the catch-up patterns of native enterprises like “sail against the current ”, Chinese enterprises have the “sloth of catch-up” during the evolution of sophistication .(2) Inadequate foreign demand can only change the capital-intensive industries’ trail of sophistication evolution, non-factors cost rise has more hurt to the sophistication evolution than the factors cost rise;(3) capital accumulation and sunk cost are good to the sophistication evolution, but the subsidy have no effects to the sophistication evolution.

摘要： 制造业技术复杂度的升级与赶超是我国经济发展方式转变的根本途径与核心内容，那么制造业当前面临的两大困境（成本上升与外需疲软）会对中国制造业技术复杂度动态演进产生什么样的影响呢？本文通过拓展林毅夫（2002）的研究方法，构建了判断企业技术复杂程度的微观识别工具，并借助965992组微观企业数据，在判定2000-2007年企业技术复杂度的基础上，从内外资和要素密集度异质性视角探索上述问题的答案。得到的结论与启示主要有：首先内资制造业技术复杂度赶超呈现显著的“逆水行舟”特征，内外资企业在技术复杂度动态演进过程中具有显著的“赶超惰性”；其次外需疲软会改变资本密集型内资企业技术复杂度演进的原有“轨迹”，对其他类型企业的影响不明显，非要素型成本上升给制造业技术复杂度深化带来的“损害”大于要素型成本上升；最后资本积累和技术复杂度演进的“沉没成本”对制造业技术复杂度具有显著的促进作用，现有的补贴制度并不具备调节制造业技术复杂度升级和赶超的功能。

关键词: 成本上升, 外需疲软, 技术复杂度动态演进, 要素密集度质性, 内外资企业, Cost Rise, Inadequate Foreign Demand, Evolution of sophistication, Factor Intensiveness Heterogeneity, Native and Foreign Own Enterprises.