Abstract: Technology and demand are two important sources of innovation. Since there is a trajectory describing technological progress, there must be a trajectory describing the evolution of demand. Comparing the research progress of scholars on the technical trajectory, it is clear that the research on the demand trajectory is still in its infancy, such as whether the morphological characteristics of the demand trajectory are similar to the S-curve of the technical trajectory, and whether the new and old demand changes process is similar to the replacement process of new and old technologies. The question was not answered clearly. Selecting the evolution of demand for Chinese TV products from 1978 to 2018 as the research object summarizes and discusses the market replacement process for color CRT TVs. It is found that the consumer value proposition drives the continuous improvement of technical performance, and the synergy between price and technical performance constitutes two aspects of the evolution of demand. Through the technical performance and price curve of the demand structure, the demand evolution trajectory defined by the demand trajectory. The research results show that, the demand trajectory is composed of technical performance trajectories and price trajectories. The shape of the demand trajectory is the result of the combination of technical performance trajectories and price trajectories. Among them, the technical performance trajectory is a continuous curve with a slope upward, and there is no discontinuous characteristic.The continuous consumer demand desires to pull the relay connection of multiple intermittent technical trajectories. The price trajectory is composed of a number of intermittent curves, each of which is a curve with a downward slope. In theory, the research results provide new insights into the complex relationship between demand and technological development. In practice, the research results provide reference for late-developing companies to understand the rules of new products entering the mainstream market, provide reference for enterprises to launch new product advertising and marketing strategies, and also recognize the importance of technology in promoting product innovation for late-stage enterprises. Point to lay the foundation.

摘要： 技术和需求是创新的两个重要来源。既然存在描述技术进步的轨道，也必然存在描述需求演化的轨道。对比现有学者在技术轨道方面的研究进展，显然需求轨道的研究仍然处于起步阶段，诸如需求轨道的形态特征是否类似技术轨道的S型曲线，以及新旧需求变迁过程是否类似新旧技术替代过程等基本问题并没有得到清晰地回答。本文选取中国电视机产品从1978年到2018年40年的需求演化历程作为研究对象，通过彩色CRT电视机对黑白电视机、平板电视机对彩色CRT电视机、液晶电视机对等离子电视机三次成功市场替代，背投电视机对彩色CRT电视机一次失败市场替代过程的总结和讨论，发现消费者价值主张驱使技术性能的持续提升，以及价格与技术性能提升的协同构成了需求演化的两个方面，通过需求结构的技术性能和价格曲线绘制了技术范式限定下的需求演化轨迹，即需求轨道。研究结果表明，需求轨道是由技术性能轨迹和价格轨迹构成，需求轨道的形态是技术性能轨迹和价格轨迹共同作用的结果。其中，技术性能轨迹是一条斜率向上的连续曲线，并不存在间断的特性，连续的消费者需求欲望拉动多条间断性技术轨道的接力式衔接。价格轨迹是由多条间断的曲线构成，每条价格轨迹都是斜率向下的曲线。在理论上，研究结果为需求与技术发展之间的复杂关系提供了新的见解。在实践上，研究结果为后发企业理解新产品进入主流市场的规律提供参考，为企业推出新产品的广告宣传和营销策略提供借鉴，也为后发企业认识到技术在促进产品创新中的着力点奠定基础。