Abstract: The transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry to intelligent manufacturing is the inevitable choice for China to realize the strategy of manufacturing power. According to the double difference method, this paper takes the introduction of "made in China 2025" policy as the quasi-natural experiment, and empirically tests the effect and mechanism of intelligent manufacturing policy on enterprise total factor productivity by using the data of A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019. First, "Made in China 2025" has effectively promoted the improvement of total factor productivity of smart manufacturing enterprises. As an incentive policy, this policy will give target companies preferential benefits in terms of capital, taxation, land use, and talents, which can effectively guide and help companies reduce costs and enhance competitiveness, thereby promoting the improvement of corporate total factor productivity. Second, "Made in China 2025" has two opposite mechanisms for the total factor productivity of enterprises. On the one hand, incentive policies induce enterprises to increase meaningless or inefficient R&D investment and reduce the total factor productivity of enterprises. This partly stems from Adverse selection behaviors caused by information asymmetry between enterprises and governments; on the other hand, they guide enterprises to increase the number of effective invention patents, thereby increasing their total factor productivity. Third, compared with state-owned enterprises, the effect of policy implementation on the total factor productivity of non-state-owned enterprises is more obvious. Due to the inherent lack of political resources and derivative advantages of non-state-owned enterprises, they are more eager to get support from policies, and their response speed and degree to policies will be higher. Therefore, policies have a stronger marginal promotion effect on their corporate factor productivity. Fourth, compared with enterprises in low-market areas, the impact of policy implementation on the total factor productivity of enterprises in high-market areas is more obvious. In regions with a high degree of marketization, government policies will be more inclined to consider supporting companies with more competitive market advantages, so as to give full play to the role of policy resources in promoting total factor productivity. The results confirm the effect of intelligent manufacturing policy, and partially open the black box of its mechanism, which has important reference and enlightening significance for the formulation and implementation of intelligent manufacturing industry policy in the next stage.

摘要： 制造业向智能制造转型升级是中国实现制造强国战略的必由之路。本文采用双重差分法，以《中国制造2025》政策出台为准自然实验，利用A股上市公司2010-2019年数据实证检验了智能制造政策对企业全要素生产率的作用效果及机制。研究发现：（1）智能制造政策能有效促进智能制造领域企业全要素生产率的提高；（2）智能制造政策一方面诱导企业增加无意义或低效率的研发投入，降低企业全要素生产率，另一方面引导企业增加有效发明专利数，进而提高企业全要素生产率；（3）智能制造政策作用效果在不同所有制性质、不同市场化程度地区的企业中存在显著差异。上述结果证实了智能制造政策的作用效果，并部分打开其作用机制黑箱，对下一阶段智能制造产业政策的制定与落实具有重要借鉴和启示意义。