Abstract: The set of industries represented by lithography is in the predicament of "technology path lock-in," and their ability to progress toward technological breakthroughs and industrial change depends on their ability to break the "technology path lock-in." This study examines the correlation between recent scientific research and the technological path to extend and expand the main technological path to the final research frontiers. The finding reveals areas where incremental innovation and breakthroughs can occur, providing latecomers with the opportunity to catch up and break the technological lock-in. It shows that the technological path of lithography evolves in the following directions: nanoimprinting technology, demolding technology, photomask positioning, and EUV photoresist process. Further, the result shows that the technological themes of the technological path are related to scientific research, but simultaneously there are distinctive differences. In this vein, it is concluded that breakthrough strategies can be adopted from two dimensions: path-following innovative path and technological leapfrog. Thus, this study presents practical and theoretical implications for discovering the opportunities for technological breakthrough and breaking the "technological path lock-in" of developed countries to China.

摘要： 以光刻为代表的系列产业处于“技术路径锁定”的困局，能否走向更深层次的技术突破和产业变革取决于能否破解“技术路径锁定”。以光刻为例，通过近期科学研究与技术主路径的关联，将技术轨道延伸和扩展至最新研究前沿，揭示可能发生技术改进和技术突破的领域，为后发国家实现技术赶超、破解技术锁定提供了机会。研究发现：光刻的技术轨道演化方向为：纳米压印技术、脱模技术、掩膜定位和EUV光刻胶工艺；主路径上光刻技术主要来自发达国家，但通过扩展和延伸，逐渐有大量中国的研究成果出现，在一定程度上技术轨道与科学研究存在关联，但也有差异；关于如何破解技术路径锁定，可以从顺轨创新型路径和技术跨越型路径两个维度采取不同的破解策略。本研究对于发现技术突破窗口，破解发达国家对我国的“技术路径锁定”具有重要的现实意义。