• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (7): 1166-1175.

• 科学学理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于专利计量的颠覆性技术识别方法研究

李乾瑞1,郭俊芳1,黄颖2,3,汪雪锋4   

  1. 1. 北京理工大学
    2.
    3. 湖南大学公共管理学院
    4. 北京理工大学管理与经济学院
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-29 修回日期:2020-05-20 出版日期:2021-07-15 发布日期:2021-07-15
  • 通讯作者: 郭俊芳

Research on the method of disruptive technology identification based on patent bibliometrics

  • Received:2020-03-29 Revised:2020-05-20 Online:2021-07-15 Published:2021-07-15
  • Contact: jun fangguo

摘要: 颠覆性技术作为技术创新的重要组成部分,已成为推动新一轮技术变革浪潮的强力引擎。如何在激烈的市场竞争中,更早地发现和识别颠覆性技术,对企业和国家把握技术发展机遇具有重要意义。为此,本文在总结颠覆性技术特征的基础上,基于专利视角,从技术融合性、新颖性、扩张性和影响力四个维度,运用熵权法和模糊一致性矩阵方法,构建了一套系统的颠覆性技术识别模型。此外,为证实该模型的可行性和有效性,本文选取5个技术领域开展实证研究,分别从同领域传统技术与颠覆性技术对比、不同领域颠覆性技术对比、以及颠覆性技术在不同时间段的对比三个维度开展分析,一方面验证了本文模型的可行性,同时探究了各技术颠覆性潜力指数的有效性和适用性。

Abstract: Disruptive technology, as an important part of technological innovation, has become a powerful engine driving of technological change. How to discover and identify disruptive technologies earlier, is of great significance, which is helpful for enterprises and countries to grasp the opportunities of technological development. For this reason, this paper proposes a technological disruptive potential identification model based on patent bibliometric. Firstly, we summarized the properties and characteristics of disruptive technology. Secondly, based on patent database, we built the quantitative index to characterize technical disruptive properties. The disruptive indexes include technical fusion index, technical novelty index, technical expansion index, and technical influence index. Thirdly, we used entropy method and fuzzy consistent matrix method to quantitative measure disruptive potential of technology. Finally, we choose five technologies to carry out empirical research from three aspects: 1) cooperation of traditional technology with disruptive technology in same field, 2) cooperation of disruptive technologies in different period, 3) cooperation of disruptive technologies in different field. In this way, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed. Meanwhile, the empirical research can further demonstrate the applicability of the disruptive potential index.