• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 841-853.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

数字技术发展、时空动态效应与区域碳排放

刘婧玲1,陈艳莹2   

  1. 1. 大连理工大学经济管理学院
    2. 大连理工大学经济学院
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-29 修回日期:2022-02-22 出版日期:2023-05-15 发布日期:2023-05-15
  • 通讯作者: 陈艳莹
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目

Digital technology development, temporal and spatial effects, regional carbon emissions

  • Received:2021-11-29 Revised:2022-02-22 Online:2023-05-15 Published:2023-05-15

摘要: 数字技术浪潮为中国实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标提供了重要动力。本文从理论上分析了数字技术发展对区域碳排放的影响机制,并基于中国284个城市2011-2017年面板数据构建数字技术发展综合指数,实证检验了二者关系的总体效应以及时空演变趋势。研究发现:数字技术发展能显著降低中国城市碳排放强度,并且随时间推移这种碳减排效应呈逐渐增强的趋势,作用机制分析显示,数字技术实现碳减排效应的中介路径除降低能源消耗强度这一直接渠道还包括促进产业结构升级和提高区域技术创新水平的间接渠道;空间计量分析表明,数字技术可通过空间外溢效应降低邻近城市的碳排放强度,有助于形成地区间协调发展的碳减排格局;另外,相较于中西部城市和外围城市,数字技术在东部和中心城市才能发挥显著的抑制碳排放作用。基于上述发现,本文从提高数字基础设施能耗效率、进一步破除行政和产业壁垒以及采取因地制宜的数字技术发展战略等方面提出了相应政策建议。

Abstract: The wide application of digital technology has driven the Global Fourth Industrial Revolution. As the world's largest emerging economy, China has launched new infrastructure construction and accelerated the development of digital technologies such as 5G, data centers, cloud computing and the Internet of Things. Meanwhile, China faces the urgent task of carbon emission reduction. The wave of digital technology has provided an important impetus for China to achieve the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality". Based on the panel data of 284 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2017, this paper constructs a comprehensive index of digital technology development from four aspects: digital infrastructure, digital factor input, digital technology-related output and digital transaction development, not only theoretically analyzes the influence mechanism of digital technology development on regional carbon emissions, but also empirically tests the overall effect of the relationship and its temporal and spatial evolution trends. In order to alleviate the possible endogenous problems, this paper takes the interaction term of the historical throughput of post and telecommunications and the annual per capita telecom revenue of each city as the instrumental variable of the digital technology development index, and constructs the two-stage least squares regression model (IV-2SLS). Then, the mediating effect model is used to test the influence paths of digital technology influencing regional carbon emissions. Considering that the three paths of the impact of digital technology on carbon emissions have different durations, the impact of digital technology on carbon emissions may have time heterogeneity. So the core explanatory variables are replaced by the digital technology development index of the current period, the first lag period and the second lag period respectively for regression. In order to further verify the spatial spillover effect of digital technology development on carbon emissions, this paper constructed the geographical distance matrix, economic distance matrix and adjacency matrix at the city level respectively, and adopted the spatial panel econometric model for spatial estimation. It is found that the development of digital technology can significantly reduce the carbon emission intensity of Chinese cities, and this conclusion is still robust through a series of robustness tests. The mechanism analysis shows that the intermediate paths of digital technology to achieve carbon emission reduction effect includes reducing energy consumption intensity, promoting industrial structure upgrading as well as improving regional technological innovation level. The spatial and temporal dynamic effect analysis shows that the carbon emission reduction effect of digital technology gradually increases with time, and digital technology can reduce the carbon emission intensity of neighboring cities through spatial spillover effect, which is conducive to the formation of coordinated regional carbon emission reduction pattern. In addition, digital technology has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission in eastern cities, but not in central and western cities, it can significantly reduce the carbon emission intensity of central cities, but can not play a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission in peripheral cities. Based on the findings, we puts forward corresponding policy recommendations on improving energy efficiency of digital infrastructure, further breaking down administrative and industrial barriers, and adopting digital technology development strategies tailored to local conditions.