• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 1364-1375.

• 科学学理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于异质性专利的颠覆性技术早期识别研究

王康1,陈悦2   

  1. 1. 大连理工大学科学学与科技管理研究所暨 WISE 实验室
    2. 大连理工大学
  • 收稿日期:2022-05-11 修回日期:2022-12-06 出版日期:2023-08-15 发布日期:2023-08-15
  • 通讯作者: 陈悦
  • 基金资助:
    颠覆性技术识别理论、方法与专家预判系统

  • Received:2022-05-11 Revised:2022-12-06 Online:2023-08-15 Published:2023-08-15
  • Contact: CHEN Yue

摘要: 识别并超前部署颠覆性技术,对我国高质量发展和国家安全具有重要的战略意义。本文提出一种基于异质性专利视角运用机器学习算法的潜在颠覆性技术早期识别方法,是对已有研究理论和方法的有益补充。首先融合BERT语义向量和IPC权重向量获取专利特征;然后利用多种异常检测算法识别异质性专利,并通过扩展的专利共被引网络计算专利的影响力;进而构建异质性专利指标和技术影响力关系数据;最后利用机器学习算法从海量异质性专利中识别出潜在颠覆性技术,并对未来技术研发方向进行预判。使用3D打印领域专利对该方法的有效性进行验证,结果显示随机森林模型在准确率、精准率、召回率和F1值指标均达到95%以上,优于其他机器学习模型;识别出的3D打印领域潜在颠覆性技术符合实际,对政策制定、企业研发和后续学术研究具有参考价值。

Abstract: Abstract:Disruptive technologies are regarded as a revolutionary force to "change the rules of the game" and "reshape the future pattern". All previous industrial revolutions have shown that whoever has mastered disruptive technologies first will take priority to occupy the technological commanding heights. With the prominence of the leading characteristics of disruptive technologies, they have increasingly risen to the fields of science and technology, national defense and military, and gradually developed to the height of national strategic leadership. Identifying disruptive technologies in advance is of great significance to the cultivation of disruptive technologies and policy formulation. Disruptive technologies are a kind of technology that "blazes a new trail", and "blazes a new trail" means differences from mainstream technologies, so identifying disruptive technologies from the perspective of heterogeneity is more consistent with the law of technological development. Similarity technologies tend to optimize existing technologies and extend the technology track and technology life cycle; Long distance and heterogeneous technologies are more likely to realize technological trajectory transition and produce disruptive technologies. Heterogeneous technology can lead to the variation of technological structure and promote technological innovation and development. From the perspective of heterogeneous patents, this paper proposes an early identification method of potentially disruptive technologies based on machine learning. Firstly, the BERT semantic vector and IPC weight vector are combined to obtain patent features; then a variety of anomaly detection algorithms are used to identify heterogeneous patents, and the patent influence is calculated through the expanded patent co-citation network; then construct heterogeneous patent indicators and technical influence relationship data; Finally, use machine learning algorithms to predict potential disruptive technologies from a large number of heterogeneous patents, and predict the future direction of technology research and development. This paper uses patents in the field of 3D printing (Additive Manufacturing, AM) to verify the effectiveness of this method. The research conclusions mainly include: (1) There are a lot of heterogeneous technologies in the field of 3D printing, but there are few heterogeneous technologies that really have an important impact on this field. It is unrealistic to use traditional expert evaluation methods (2) Among machine learning algorithms, random forest algorithm has the best performance in identifying potentially subversive technologies in 3D printing field. (3) The research and development directions of potential disruptive technologies in 3D printing field in the future are: ① metal 3D printing and preparation of alloy, concrete and ceramic materials; ② The application of 3D printing technology in the fields of medicine, electronic instruments, electrical engineering and electronic energy, as well as the research and development of polymer chemistry, polymers and other materials; ③ Computer, control and communication technology; ④ Chemical engineering, biotechnology and biomaterial analysis; ⑤ The application of 3D printing technology in engines, pumps, turbines, textile and paper machines, mechanical parts, civil engineering, furniture, games, transportation, other consumer goods and other fields. The potential subversive technologies identified in the 3D printing field are in line with the reality and have reference value for policy formulation, enterprise research and development and subsequent academic research.