关键词: 颠覆性技术, 物种入侵模型, 集对分析, 识别

Abstract: Disruptive technology follows a bottom-up performance development trajectory. Based on creation of new technical attribute set, disruptive technology introduces a new competitive platform, substitutes prior arts, and changes enterprises’ technical competition situation. Early identification and detection towards disruptive technology will provide timely adjustment of technology innovation strategy and avoid risks at company level. Existing identification research mostly adopted subjective methods, while objective methods based on patent analysis have not been applied. In order to solve the above problem, this article proposes a identification framework towards disruptive technology. Based on patent data, this framework introduces ideas of attributes innovation and modified promotion mechanism of technological development. Then species invasion model and set pair analysis are used to figure out the similarity of attribute sets before/after the emergence of new technologies in order to measure the disruptive intensity of certain technology. Finally, validity testament is organized using Derwent patent data in field of vehicle’s lithium-ion-cell.

Key words: disruptive technology, species invasion analysis, set pair analysis, identification