关键词: 技术系数矩阵, 灾害, 产业经济系统, 政策启示, Technical coefficients matrix, Disasters, Industrial economy system, Policy Revelations

Abstract: In recent years, severe disasters occurred frequently, which prompts people to pay more attention to the losses of industrial economy system caused by disasters. Previous studies were mostly limited to assessing the direct losses of a particular industry or a region caused by disasters so that there are less studies on comprehensive losses of disaster damage (including indirect losses). Based on Wassily Leontief’s technical coefficients matrix, this paper takes full account of the intrinsic relevance between the various subsystems in the industrial economy system and expands the thoughts of Haimes and Santos from the point of decreased industry output due to disasters, finally it proposed static and dynamic input-output integrated assessment models. Take the case of the meteorological disasters in china in 2008 to validate this model as followings. First, calculate the final output losses of all industries and overall industrial economy system in the static and danymic cases. Second, sift and select those industries which are more sensitive to disasters. Finally, the policy revelations were given. Such as constructe the new donation mechanism and rely on the technology progress to reduce the comprehensive loss of disaster.