关键词: 排放配额, 减排路径, 平稳增长, 最优控制, 研发投资, Emission Budget, Abatement Pathway, Balanced Growth, Optimal Control, R&D investment

Abstract: It is well accepted that climate mitigation should not stimulate economic crisis thanks to the 2008 global financial crisis. Under this context, we studied the effect of research and development (R&D) investment on the knowledge accumulation, energy efficiency improvement, and substituting for some physical energy input. Moreover, this paper combined the economic growth theory with the optimal control model, to simulate the trajectory for R&D investment under the double objectives of climate mitigation and optimal balanced economic growth. The simulation indicated that the R&D investment, which is an effective way to improve the energy efficiency, would see a slight drop-down for the inceptive period, and aggressively rise to a relative high level then drop again afterward. Under the 450 ppm carbon concentration target, the R&D investment ratio in GDP would have to increase significantly from 2016, much stringent compared to other less rigorous targets as 500 ppm. The economic would maintain its growth trend, though less rapid as that under rigorous targets. Before the enforcement of effective R&D investment, the carbon emission would increase rapidly and the carbon intensity of GDP would not see a significant decrease. While after the enforcement, the speed of carbon emission would slow down and the carbon emission would start to drop evidently.