• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (9): 1579-1586.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

中等收入陷阱的存在性讨论及跨越机制分析

寇宏伟1,陈璋2,3   

  1. 1. 中国人民大学经济学院
    2.
    3. 中国人民大学
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-22 修回日期:2020-02-27 出版日期:2020-09-15 发布日期:2020-09-16
  • 通讯作者: 寇宏伟

The Discussion of the Existence of the Middle-Income Trap and the Analysis of the Spanning Mechanism:The Demand Scale and Technological Progress

  • Received:2019-10-22 Revised:2020-02-27 Online:2020-09-15 Published:2020-09-16

摘要: 不发达国家独特的技术进步过程是分析中等收入陷阱问题的起点。本文对此过程进行阶段划分,按先后顺序将其划分为转移性技术进步阶段、替代性技术进步阶段、创新性技术进步阶段。从第一阶段向第二阶段过渡过程中的技术进步方式及需求规模的变化是中等收入陷阱产生的主要原因,而最终本国需求规模的大小决定了其跨越中等收入陷阱的难度。本国需求规模越大,跨越难度越低。同时,本文采用2011年-2017年我国28个行业年度面板数据建立固定效应模型对理论分析结果进行检验,结果符合本文假说:需求规模越大,自主研发成果越多。

Abstract: The unique technological progress process of the underdeveloped countries is the starting point of analyzing the middle-income trap. In this paper, the process is divided into three stages: the transfer technology progress stage, the alternative technology progress stage and the innovative technology progress stage. The main reason for the middle-income trap is the change of technological progress mode and demand scale in the process of transition from the first stage to the second stage, and the size of domestic demand limits the difficulty of crossing the middle-income trap. The larger the scale of domestic demand, the lower the difficulty of spanning. At the same time, this paper uses the annual panel data of 28 industries in China from 2011 to 2017 to establish a fixed effect model to test the theoretical analysis results. The results conform to the hypothesis: the larger the demand scale is, the more independent research and development results are.