• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (10): 1754-1767.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国离科技强国有多远

柳卸林1,马瑞俊迪2,刘建华2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院
    2. 郑州大学管理工程学院
    3.
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-18 修回日期:2020-06-04 出版日期:2020-10-15 发布日期:2020-10-15
  • 通讯作者: 马瑞俊迪
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金委管理学部重点项目:高新技术产业突破性创新的形成机制与模式研究

How Far is China from World Science and Technology Power Country

  • Received:2020-02-18 Revised:2020-06-04 Online:2020-10-15 Published:2020-10-15
  • Supported by:

    National Science Foundation of China

摘要: 文章从“科技投入—科技产出—科技绩效”角度建立科技大国指标体系和科技强国指标体系,衡量国家科技总量和人均发展水平,对比美国、德国、英国、法国、日本和中国2004—2017年指标数据,分析中国建设科技大国与强国的发展趋势。利用标杆分析法和专家赋权分析方法得出科技大国与强国评分,计算出科技强国综合指数,并运用灰色Verhulst模型和GM(1,1)模型预测2020—2035年美国等6个国家的科技强国评分和科技强国综合指数。得出结论:目前中国已成为科技大国,但与科技强国还有一定距离,到2035年,中国科技综合实力明显提升,科技强国综合指数超过法国,与英国基本持平,与日本、德国差距缩小,但同美国还有一定差距。

Abstract: From the perspective of "science and technology input-science and technology output-science and technology performance", the article establishes an index system for science and technology nations and an index system for science and technology power. It measures the total amount of science and technology in the country and the level of per capita development. It compares the annual index data 2004 and 2017 in the United States, Germany, Britain, France, Japan and China, which analyzes the development trend of China's construction of a large and powerful country in science and technology. The article uses benchmark analysis and expert empowerment analysis methods to obtain the scores of science and technology power and nations, calculates the comprehensive index of science and technology power, and uses Verhulst model and GM (1,1) model to predict science and technology score and comprehensive index between 2020 and 2035 in 6 countries. It concludes that at present China has become a big country in science and technology, but it is still a certain distance from the science and technology power. By 2035, the comprehensive strength of China's science and technology will significantly increase. The comprehensive index of the country's science and technology will surpass France, will be basically the same as Britain, and the gap with Japan and Germany will narrow. But there is still a certain gap with the United States.