Abstract: Citizen science is a scientific research mode of public participation, which mobilizes the social resources to solve the difficulties in scientific research. In general, citizen science neither return physical rewards , nor relates to equity rewards, therefore, the driving factors of the citizen scientific investment determine the incentives of the investors. Thus, the study on the determinants of the backers’ funding intentions promotes the successful financing of the citizen scientific projects. We use explanatory model to analyze the factors affecting the participation of the Citizen science, and then the forecasting model is employed to predict the pledge results of the Citizen science projects from the following aspects: financiers, project content and the interactions between the founders and the backers. Through empirical study on 741 projects from Experiment, we get the following key conclusions: interdisciplinary scientific projects are more successful than the single field projects with successful ratio of 70.73% and 89.07% respectively. As for the identity of the founders, the successful ratio of the projects initiated by students and folk scientists shows higher successful ratio than the projects initiated by university facility; the financing experience promotes the financing successful ratio significantly. The achievement in scientific research improves the investors’ degree of concern for the project, thus promotes the successful ratio of the project. Last, the updates delivery the progress of the project, thus, updates help the backers to make investment decisions. The prediction model validates the results of this study and it provides both theoretical implication and practical guidance for the development of citizen science.

摘要： 公众科学是公众参与的科学研究，能够调动广大社会资源解决科学研究中的难题。通常，公众科学项目不涉及物质回报，也没有股权回报，因此研究公众科学投资的驱动因素有助于梳理投资者对于公众科学项目的投资动因，促进公众科学项目成功融资。通过对来自知名公众科学平台Experiment上的741个公众科学项目的实证研究，采用数据分析方法，从融资人身份、项目内容和交互信息三个方面分析影响公众科学项目投资的因素，进而采用预测模型对公众科学项目的融资结果进行预测。通过分析得到以下结论：跨领域的科研项目更容易获得融资成功，单一领域与跨领域项目的融资成功率分别为70.73%和89.07%；而对于融资者身份，学生和民间科学家发起的科研项目比大学职员发起的项目在融资成功率上高得多；融资经验对项目的融资成功率具有显著促进作用；融资者已经取得的前期科研成果，能够提高投资者对项目的关注度，提升项目融资成功率；对项目进行适度更新，把项目的最新进展传递给潜在投资者，有利于投资者做出投资决策。预测模型验证了投资者驱动因素分析的结果，本文研究为公众科学的发展提供了理论基础和实践指导。