Abstract: Based on the panel data of fifteen segments of China's manufacturing from 2000 to 2016, the research measures the inter-industry R&D spillovers from vertical (including forward and backward) and horizontal dimensions, and then examines the effects that inter-industry R&D spillovers make and the threshold effects of human capital on the spillovers. Furthermore examine the industrial heterogeneities of inter-industry spillover effects. The results demonstrate that: every inter-industry R&D spillovers can contribute to TFP, but the R&D investment is still the core factor that effecting TFP. Human capital restricts the spillover effects and makes them non-linear. The level of human capitals in six low-tech industries such as food and tobacco industry need to be improved. The classification studies reveal that the growth of TFP in high-tech industries mainly depends on R&D stock. There's no virtuous circle forming among the inter-industry R&D spillovers. The low-tech industries rely more on technological advances in related industries, while the endogenous innovation is not enough.

摘要： 运用2000-2016年中国制造业15个细分行业面板数据，从垂直(前向、后向)和水平两个维度测算产业间R&D溢出量，考察多维产业间R&D溢出对制造业TFP的影响及人力资本门槛效应，并探讨产业间溢出效应的行业异质性。研究发现，从整体来看，各类产业间溢出都有助于TFP增长，但产业自身的研发投入仍是影响TFP的核心因素；人力资本制约产业间溢出效应，并使其具有非线性特征，食品和烟草制造业等6个低技术产业的人力资本水平有待提高；分行业研究发现，高技术产业TFP增长主要依靠自身研发存量，行业间R&D溢出没有呈现出良性循环，低技术产业则更多地依赖关联行业的技术进步，而内生创新动力不足。