Abstract: Disruptive technology, as an important part of technological innovation, has become a powerful engine to promote technological change. Identifying and tracking the characteristics and trends of disruptive technology evolution has important research value and practical significance to the state and enterprises. It is helpful for identification of disruptive technology priority areas and rational allocation of resources. To this end, this paper starts with the four characteristics of disruptive technology, introduces theme-timing sequence analysis and patent citation network analysis, and proposes an analysis model for the evolution of disruptive technology themes from the perspective of mutation-fusion. Leiden community discovery algorithm is introduced to identify technology themes. Finally, in order to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model, this paper selects the field of additive manufacturing technology to carry out empirical research. The analysis results provide a basis for the judgment and rule summary of the evolution path of additive manufacturing technology. Compared with previous studies, the model in this paper fully combines the characteristics of disruptive technology. Meanwhile, the analysis conclusions of technology topic evolution are more specific and diversified, which provides a basis for accurately grasping the evolution path and future development direction of disruptive technology topic.

摘要： 颠覆性技术已成为推动新一轮技术变革浪潮的强力引擎，识别和追踪颠覆性技术演化发展的特征和趋势，对国家和企业识别颠覆性技术优先领域、合理配置科技资源具有重要的理论和现实意义。为此，本文以颠覆性技术为研究对象，从颠覆性技术的四个特征入手，在运用Leiden社区发现算法识别技术主题的基础上，引入主题-时序分析和专利引文网络分析，提出了基于突变-融合视角的颠覆性技术主题演化分析模型。最后，为证实该模型的可行性和有效性，本文选取增材制造技术领域开展实证研究，分析结果对该领域技术演化路径识别与预测提供了依据。本文模型相比于前人研究，充分结合了颠覆性技术的特征，得到的技术主题演化分析结论指导性更强，有助于更准确地把握颠覆性技术主题演化路径及未来发展方向。