Abstract: Under the background of market demand shrinkage shock, this paper constructs a mathematical model to reveal the characteristics of firms' R&D behavior in the process of industrial organization reconstruction under the impact of shrinkage of market demand. Then, using the micro sample data of manufacturing listed companies in 2016-2018, the paper empirically demonstrates the R&D behavior of firms under the impact of the shrinkage of market demand. The results show that the contraction of market demand makes the determinants of R&D behavior of firms change from market structure to market capacity, which causes the change of R&D competition behavior of enterprises, and then leads to the reconstruction of industrial organization; In the face of the exogenous contraction of market capacity, medium-sized and large enterprises will increase R & D investment, while small enterprises will reduce R & D investment. This is in sharp contrast to the phenomenon that small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body of R & D in the period of rapid expansion and slow growth of market capacity. It is an important way to realize the upgrading of industrial technology to fully stimulate consumer demand from the demand side and give full play to the scale advantage of enterprises from the supply side.

摘要： 本文基于市场需求萎缩冲击的外部环境背景，首先构建数理模型揭示市场需求萎缩冲击下产业组织重构过程中的企业研发竞争行为特征，随之用2016-2018年间制造业上市公司的微观样本数据，实证检验市场需求萎缩冲击下企业研发行为规律。结果表明市场需求的萎缩冲击使企业研发行为的决定因素由市场结构转变为市场需求，引起企业研发竞争行为规律发生改变，进而导致产业组织重构；制造业上市公司中规模较大的企业面对市场需求萎缩的环境会增加研发投入，而规模较小的企业减少研发投入；这与在市场需求快速扩张时期与缓慢增长时期，中小规模企业是市场中研发主体的现象形成鲜明对比。从需求端上充分拉动消费需求，从供给端上发挥企业的规模优势是实现产业技术升级的重要路径。