• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

›› 2012, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (6): 813-819.

• 科学学理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

科技规模“指数增长”佯谬与“协调增长规律”分析

孙喜杰   

  1. 清华大学
  • 收稿日期:2011-11-02 修回日期:2012-04-17 出版日期:2012-06-15 发布日期:2012-06-14
  • 通讯作者: 孙喜杰

Analysis of the “Exponential Growth” Paradox and “Coordination Growth” Rule for Science and Technology Size

  • Received:2011-11-02 Revised:2012-04-17 Online:2012-06-15 Published:2012-06-14

摘要: 科技规模“指数增长”佯谬是科学学研究领域一个尚未完全解决的问题。这篇论文通过对普赖斯“指数增长”规律的剖析,指出了“指数增长”佯谬主要缘于普赖斯对科技系统“投入”、“产出”的本末倒置以及对“科学比当今世界上任何其他事物发展更快”的不准确判断。在论证科技投入作为科技规模替代指标合理性与可行性的基础上,通过科技经费增长情况的考察,论证了科技规模的增长规律本质上是科技与经济协调增长的规律,同时也讨论分析了这种“协调增长规律”的动力机制及其启示,即:如若不断加大的科技经费需求得不到满足,世界科技中心将会转移到经济增长率高、科技经费多的国家。

关键词: 科技规模 , 指数增长规律 , 科技投入 , 协调增长规律 , 科技中心 , Science and technology size, Exponential growth, Investment in science and technology, Coordinate growth, Science and Technology Center

Abstract: The “exponential growth” paradox of science and technology size is an unsolved problems of the science of science. By the analysis of the Price “exponential growth”, this paper pointed out that the “exponential growth” paradox mainly due to the reverse of science and technology system “input” and “output”, and the incorrect judgment which science and technology develops faster than anything. Based on the reasoning of the rationality and feasibility of investment as the indicators of science and technology scale, the statistical analysis of science and technology funds demonstrates that the growth rule of science and technology size is the coordinate growth between science and technology and economy in essence. The mechanism and enlightenment of this coordination growth are also discussed. The coordination growth indicates that if the increasing funds needs are not met, the world center of science and technology will be transferred to the nation which invest more in science and technology and whose economic growth rate is higher.

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