关键词: R&D, 风险投资, 搜寻, 周期性波动, R&D Investment, Venture capital, Searching, Cyclicality

Abstract: This article extends Barlevy’s R&D investment volatility model. We appoint that there are intrinsically linkages among of R&D investment, venture capital investments and macroeconomic aggregates (GDP) cyclicality. We think that, when macro-economic in the downstream stage, the opportunity cost of R&D investments which enterprise carried out is small; enterprise would be timely to increase R&D investments. This will create more technical innovation chances. Venture Capital investment will increase, and further advance R&D investments and macroeconomic growth. We analyze 12 countries’ R&D investments, venture capital investments and macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations in the period 1995-2010. Granger causality test confirmed the reasoning of the model that is the total macroeconomic changes is the reasons for the change of R&D investment, and changes in venture capital is the reasons for the changes in macroeconomic aggregates and the changes of R&D investments. The regression model based on panel data confirmed the model inference. Finally, we should take a variety of fiscal and monetary policy to support and strongly encourage technological innovation in the slow growth phases. These measures would enhance the growth potential of macroeconomic in the next issue.