• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

›› 2014, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 706-716.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

技术进步在二氧化碳减排中的双刃效应——基于中国工业35个行业的经验证据

金培振,张亚斌,彭星   

  1. 湖南大学经济与贸易学院
  • 收稿日期:2013-09-13 修回日期:2014-01-23 出版日期:2014-05-15 发布日期:2014-05-13
  • 通讯作者: 金培振
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“中国对外贸易实现包容性增长的机制及实证研究”;教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国物联网发展战略研究”;湖南省研究生科研创新项目“两化融合与中国工业绿色革命:理论与实证”

The Double-edged Effect of Technological Progress in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction:Empirical Evidence from 35 Sub-industrial sectors in China

  • Received:2013-09-13 Revised:2014-01-23 Online:2014-05-15 Published:2014-05-13

摘要: 本文基于产品质量改进思想构建了考虑能源效率改进与二氧化碳减排的经济增长模型,利用1999-2011年中国工业35个行业面板数据探讨技术进步通过影响经济增长与能源效率进而作用于二氧化碳减排的双刃效应。研究发现,技术进步在工业领域通过能源效率改进带来的减排效应尚不能抵消其推动经济增长带来的二氧化碳增长效应,但会使轻、重工业行业的二氧化碳排放强度向低端收敛;与轻工业相比,重工业的能源效率改进相对经济增长而言对二氧化碳减排的影响更强,以绿色技术创新带动重工业的能源效率提升将是未来节能减排工作的切入点与着力点。

关键词: 技术进步, 能源效率, 二氧化碳减排, 双刃效应, technological progress, energy efficiency, carbon dioxide emission reduction, double-edged effect

Abstract: Based on the product quality improvement theory, this article constructed an economic growth model which taken the energy efficiency improvements and carbon dioxide emission reduction into account, then used the panel data of 35 sub-industrial sectors in China from 1999-2011, this paper discussed the double-edged effect of technological progress which through the energy efficiency improvements and economic growth to lower the carbon dioxide emissions in industry. Results indicate that the technological progress through the energy efficiency improvements is still unable to eliminate the industrial carbon dioxide emissions brought by the economic growth; however, it can lower the carbon dioxide emissions intensity of light industry and heavy industry. Compared with light industry, the energy efficiency improvements of heavy industry have stronger impact on carbon dioxide emissions than economic growth. By boosting the heavy industry's green technology innovation to improve the energy efficiency should be the entry point and the focus of energy saving and carbon dioxide emission reduction in the future.

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