诺奖候选人学术影响、提名人身份与获奖概率

科学学研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 1550-1557.

诺奖候选人学术影响、提名人身份与获奖概率

孙玉涛¹,陈灵芝²

1. 大连理工大学
2.

收稿日期:2018-10-08 修回日期:2019-07-26 出版日期:2019-09-15 发布日期:2019-09-15
通讯作者: 孙玉涛
基金资助:
“基于‘人员-机构’匹配的学术人员跨国迁移网络研究：模型、结构与机制”

Candidates Academic Influence, Nominee Status and The Probability of Awarding Nobel Prize —— An example of Nobel Prize in Physics （1901-1950）

Received:2018-10-08 Revised:2019-07-26 Online:2019-09-15 Published:2019-09-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 文章以1901-1950年诺贝尔物理学奖为例，从诺贝尔物理学奖候选人学术影响以及提名人身份两个方面探究了对诺贝尔奖候选人的获奖概率影响，采用生存分析法中的Kaplan—Meier分析法和Cox回归模型进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：在诺贝尔奖候选人的学术影响中，单篇最高被引频次越高，获得诺贝尔奖的概率越大，但是诺贝尔奖候选人的H指数值对其获得诺贝尔奖不具有显著作用；诺贝尔奖候选人的提名人身份是瑞士皇家科学院院士或诺贝尔委员会成员的数量越多，获奖概率越大，但提名人身份是曾经的诺贝尔奖得主，对诺贝尔奖候选人的获奖概率并无显著影响。

Abstract: This article explores the factors influencing the Nobel Prize winning probability from the academic influence of the Nobel Prize nominees and the status of the nominators based on the Nobel Prize in Physics from 1901 to 1950 as an example. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression model were used to test empirically. Research shows that the higher Nobel Prize nominee's Highest Citation of One Article in the academic influence is, the greater probability of winning a Nobel Prize becomes，while the Nobel Prize nominee's H-index has no significant positive effect on winning Nobel Prize. The more Nobel’s nominee identities are the members of the Royal Society of Switzerland’s Royal Academy or the Nobel Committee, the greater the probability of winning the Nobel Prize nominees. While nominee status is a former Nobel laureate and has no significant effect on the probability of winning a Nobel Prize.

孙玉涛陈灵芝. 诺奖候选人学术影响、提名人身份与获奖概率[J]. 科学学研究, 2019, 37(9): 1550-1557.